Why India is reaching out to the Taliban now

India’s recent diplomatic engagement with the Taliban government in Afghanistan represents a significant shift in the way it sees the geopolitical reality of the region.

It comes more than three years after India suffered a major strategic and diplomatic blow Kabul fell to the Taliban.

Two decades of investment in Afghanistan’s democracy – through military training, scholarships and landmark projects like building its new parliament – quickly unraveled. The collapse paved the way for greater influence from regional rivals, particularly Pakistan and China, eroding India’s strategic base and raising new security concerns.

However, last week he signaled a change. India’s top diplomat Vikram Misri met Taliban acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai, the highest level of engagement since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, which it considered an “important regional and economic power.”

The talks focused on expanding trade and leveraging Iran’s Chabahar port, which India is developing to bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.

How big is this meeting? Delhi has now given the Taliban leadership the de facto legitimacy it has sought from the international community since its return to power, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think-tank, told me.

“The fact that this deal is coming from India – a nation that previously had no friendly relations with the Taliban – makes it even more significant, and also a diplomatic victory for the Taliban,” he says.

Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, countries have taken different approaches to the regime, balancing diplomatic engagement with human rights and security concerns. China, for example, has gone a long way: it has actively engaged with the Taliban, focusing on security and economic interests, and more. an ambassador in the country

No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but up to 40 countries have diplomatic or informal relations with it.

That’s why experts like Jayant Prasad, former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, are more cautious about India’s outreach.

For the past three years, India has maintained contact with the Taliban through a foreign diplomatic service. India closed its consulates in Afghanistan during the civil war in the 1990s and reopened them in 2002 after the war ended. “We didn’t want this rift to develop (again), so we wanted to be involved. It’s just a step in the relationship,” he says.

India has it “Historical ties and civilizations“With Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar told parliament in 2023. India has invested more than $3 billion (£2.46 billion) in more than 500 projects in Afghanistan, including roads, power lines, dams, hospitals and clinics. It has trained Afghan officers, thousands of scholarships they gave it to the students and they built the new parliament building.

This reflects a persistent geopolitical reality. “Irrespective of the nature of the regime in Kabul – monarchical, communist or Islamist – there has been a natural warmth between Delhi and Kabul,” The Indian Express newspaper. he stated.

Mr. Kugelman agrees with the sentiment. “India has an important legacy as a donor of development and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan, which has made it the goodwill of the Afghan public who are keen not to lose Delhi,” he says.

Interestingly, relations with Delhi are easing amid tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan says the hardline Taliban in Pakistan (TTP) operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

Last July, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that Pakistan would do so Continue the attacks against Afghanistan as part of an anti-terrorism operation. Days before talks between India and the Taliban, Pakistani airstrikes killed dozens in eastern Afghanistan, according to the Afghan government. The Taliban government condemned the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty.

This marks a sharp decline in relations since the fall of Kabul in 2021, when a senior Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to meet the Taliban regime. At the time, many saw the fall of Kabul as a strategic setback for India.

“While Pakistan is not the only factor driving India’s increased outreach to the Taliban, it is true that Delhi gains a major victory in its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan by moving closer to a long-time critical Pakistani asset that has now turned against its former patron,” says Mr. Kugelman.

There are other reasons that encourage disclosure. India aims to strengthen connectivity and gain access to Central Asia, which cannot be reached directly by land due to Pakistan’s relinquishment of transit rights. Experts say Afghanistan is key to that goal. One strategy is to cooperate with Iran in the development of the Chabahar port to improve access to Central Asia through Afghanistan.

“It is easier for Delhi to focus on the Afghan component of this plan by engaging more closely with the Taliban leadership, which is behind India’s plans, as it would help improve trade and connectivity links in Afghanistan,” says Kugelman.

Clearly, India’s latest outreach helps advance its core interests in Taliban-led Afghanistan: preventing terrorist threats to India, deepening connectivity with Iran and Central Asia, maintaining public goodwill through aid, and dealing with a struggling Pakistan.

What about the downsides?

“The main danger of strengthening ties with the Taliban is the Taliban themselves. We are talking about a violent and brutal actor with close ties to international terrorist groups – including Pakistan – who have done little to reform what happened in the 1990s,” says Mr. Kugelman.

“India can hope that if it keeps the Taliban at bay, so to speak, the Taliban will be less likely to undermine India or its interests. And that may be true. But at the end of the day, can it really trust an actor. Like the Taliban? That will be the vexing question hanging over India. , which carefully follows this complex relationship.”

Mr. Prasad sees no downside to India’s engagement in Afghanistan, despite concerns about the Taliban’s treatment of women. “The Taliban is completely in control. Letting the Taliban burn in their own juice will not help the people of Afghanistan. Some engagement with the international community can put pressure on the government to improve its behavior.”

“Remember, the Taliban crave recognition,” says Mr. Prasad. “They know that this will only happen after internal reforms.” Like the return of women to public life and the restoration of their rights to education, work and political participation.