“There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko”

It happens in history when countries are caught by the electoral branches.

January 2025 in Belarus is not one of them.

Drive around Minsk and you won’t see any big billboards that don’t promote portraits of the candidates.

There is little campaign.

The gray sky and sley of the Belarusian winter adds to the prevailing sense of inactivity.

And the inevitability.

The outcome of the 2025 presidential election is not in doubt. Alexander Lukashenko, the reigning heir to “Europe’s last dictator”, who has ruled Belarus for more than 30 years, will be declared the winner and secure a seventh term in office.

Its supporters call it an exercise “Belarusian Democracy”. His opponents Dismiss the process as a “farce”.

Mr. Lukashenko has also declared that he has no interest in the process.

“I’m not following the election campaign. I don’t have time,” the Belarusian leader told workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant this week.

The workers presented him with a gift: an ax for chopping wood.

“I will try it before the elections,” promised Mr. Lukashenko, to thunderous applause.

Four and a half years ago, in another company, the leader of Belarus received a much cooler reception.

2020 2020 presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko visited the Minsk Wheels tractor plant. Lored Video’s staff caught him and scolded him. They shouted ‘”leave! Go!”.

In 2020 the Official Election Results of 80% Mr. Lukashenko – sparked outrage and massive protests in the country. Belarusians took to the streets to accuse the leader of stealing their votes and stealing the election.

In the next brutal police crackdown, thousands of anti-government protesters and critics were arrested. Eventually, a wave of repression quelled the protests and, with the help of Russia, Mr. Lukashenko came to power.

The United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States refuse to recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenko’s craziest opponents (and potential rivals) are in prison or forced into exile.

This is why this week the European Parliament called on the EU to reject the next presidential election as “disgraceful” and insisted that the election campaign has been carried out “in an environment of severe repression Minimum standards for democratic elections”.

I remember Interviews Alexander Lukashenko Last Octoberthe date of the presidential election was announced.

“How can these elections be free and democratic if the opposition leaders are in jail or abroad?” I asked

“Do you really know who the opposition leader is?” Mr. Lukashenko backed down.

“The opposition is a group of people who must serve the interests of at least a small number of people in the country. Where are these leaders? Wake up!”

Alexander Lukashenko is not the only candidate. There are four more. But they seem more like spoilers than serious challenges.

I drive four hours from Minsk to meet one of them. Sergei Syrankov is the leader of the Communist Party of Belarus. I sit in the town of Vitebsk at one of his campaign events. In a large hall Syrankov addresses a small audience, symbols of his party, hammers and patients.

His campaign slogan is unusual to say the least: “Not instead, but together with Lukashenko!”

He is a presidential candidate who openly supports his opponent.

“There is no alternative to Alexander Lukashenko as the leader of our country,” Mr. Syrankov told me. “So we’re participating in the election with the president’s team.”

“Why do you think there is no alternative?” I ask

“Lukashenko is a man of the people, a man of the soil, he has done everything to make sure we don’t have the kind of chaos they have in Ukraine.”

“You’re fighting for power, but you support another candidate. That’s … unusual,” I suggest.

“I’m sure that Alexander Lukashenko will win a thumping victory. But even if he wins, and I don’t, the communists will be the winners,” replied Mr. Syrankov.

“The main communist in our country is our head of state. Lukashenko still has his old membership card from the days of the Soviet Communist Party.”

Butotean is the leader of the liberal-democratic party of Belarus. He is not in the running to win either.

“If anyone suggests the outcome of the election is not known, it’s a lie,” Mr. Gaidukevich told me.

“It is clear that Lukashenko will win. He has a massive rating … we will fight to strengthen our positions and prepare for the next elections.”

Lukashenko’s critics assert that his popularity is “massive”. But there is no doubt about the help.

On the edge of Vitebsk is the small town of Oktyabrskaya. Speaking there, I sense concern that a change in leadership could spark instability.

“I want a stable salary and stability in the country,” Soldier Sergei told me. “Other candidates make promises, but they may not keep them. I want to keep what I got.”

“Today the situation is very tense,” says Zenaida. “Maybe other people deserve power. But a young leader gets his feet under the table, makes important connections with other countries and people that will take a long time.

“God forbid we should end up like Ukraine.”

In Belarus today there is fear of instability, fear of the unknown and fear of the government. They all work for the benefit of Alexander Lukashenko.