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The victory formula for Pangilinan and Aquino is rather straightforward. But it’s easier said than done.
The excitement among the Diehard Duterte Supporters (DDS) could hardly be contained. They immediately framed the results of the Pulse Asia survey conducted after the March 11 arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte as the beginning of an unstoppable “green wave,” the jolt in the rankings of candidates identified with the former president and Vice President Sara Duterte, green being her official color, presaging an upset in the midterm elections.
But is there a green wave? A green bubble is a more accurate description.
Pulse Asia president Ronnie Holmes, asked to interpret the phenomena, explained that the increase in ranking was not the result of a sudden mass conversion of pro-Marcos and undecided voters to DDS. “Passive” Duterte supporters chose to express their dismay over the arrest of the former president by actively backing reelectionist Senators Bong Go and Ronald de la Rosa, actor Phillip Salvador, and Representative Rodante Marcoleta, with the last two barging into the circle of possible winners.
But the bump was not enough to dislodge the front-running administration candidates. It was a consolidation, not an expansion. Duterte candidates benefitted from the sharp decline in voter preference for Marcos-backed candidates. Most voters have swung to the undecided column.
Homestretch
As the campaign enters the homestretch, the challenge for the candidates and their campaign staff is to consolidate the base and reach out to undecided voters. This is where machinery and resources will play a decisive role.
Given the lack of organizational muscle on the part of PDP-Laban and the absence of the former president, their figurehead and symbol of resistance, it is doubtful if the Duterte party can sustain this so-called wave. For this they would need to rely on impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, politically invigorated by the spring air of the Hague. It would be a test of her political clout. And two candidates outside the PDP-Laban have taken the gamble: presidential sister and ex-Alyansa candidate Imee Marcos and Camille Villar, both consistent tail-enders in pre-election surveys.
The administration coalition’s response to the survey results has so far been muted, shell-shocked perhaps by the direct hit. Yet it would be foolish to write its political obituary. The advantage in midterm elections has always been on the side of the incumbent.
The urgent task is to debunk the emerging narrative of an administration coalition crumbling near the finish line, led by a politically-neutered incumbent President. The Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas must be King Kong, crushing all opposition. There is no room to play good guy in a cutthroat election where the political survival of the Marcoses is at stake. Being a wimp is not good optics for the party in power.
Surge for Kiko-Bam
What has caught the attention of some analysts is the uneven climb of former Liberal Party (LP) senators Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan and Bam Aquino in several surveys. As expected, their core supporters are tickled pink.
The victory formula for Pangilinan and Aquino is rather straightforward: secure enough votes in the strongholds of former vice president Leni Robredo, namely Bicol, Western Visayas and parts of Metro Manila (several local surveys in Metro Manila show either Aquino or Pangilinan in the magic 12). But that is easier said than done.
For the past weeks, the Pangilinan and Aquino campaigns have been mounting messaging offensives on television and social media. Some of their content have invited the expected ridicule and trolling. There are, however, honest questions about authenticity. It’s the persistence in feigned cuteness and affinity with the poor that is being questioned by sincere sympathizers. Pangilinan flooding social media with food reels, obviously intended to drive home his “pagkain” messaging, can also be seen as insensitive when the polls show rising incidence of self-rated hunger.
And there is a bigger dilemma that is not being acknowledged: given the tight clustering for the last six spots, there is the possibility that the two Liberal bets could end up fighting for the the final slot, and operators would need to make some heartbreaking decisions.
How about Alyansa?
Their improved voter preference comes at the expense of cellar-dwelling Alyansa candidates, and has fueled persistent talks of an alliance between the LP and Alyansa, officially denied by both camps. An alliance, formal or informal, between the LP and the Alyansa would be heresy, especially for cancel-prone “pinklawan” purists and hardcore Marcos loyalists.
But a Kiko-Bam victory will not be a total loss to the administration, from a strategic point of view. Sure, it punctures the image of the political juggernaut that is the Alyansa. However, If the ultimate goal is to get enough votes to convict Sara Duterte in the Senate, a win for either Pangilinan or Aquino, or for both of them, increases the possibility of getting enough votes for conviction. It would compensate for the acquittal votes of senators and candidates allied with the Dutertes. Candidates who have been endorsed by the Vice President are not even signaling their votes. It’s a neon sign that reads acquittal.
Still, when the administration floods the country — and local leaders — with still untapped resources and incentives, and summons the faithful to close ranks behind the President’s candidates, we should expect a bump for the Alyansa bets in the final weeks. Not even a pink surge or green wave could stop that. – Rappler.com
Joey Salgado is a former journalist, and a government and political communications practitioner. He served as spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay.
