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This photo of January 30, 2025, shows the headquarters of the ECB of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.
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The European Central Bank is very awaiting interest rates this year with global fare and uncertainty that threatens economic growth in the euro area.
From Wednesday, the market was approximately 94 prices from the Central Bank, and according to Lsen data, close to 6% of the 50% base point reduction.
A three-point cut would take the ECB deposit installation rate, its key rate, from 2.25% to a height of 4% to the center of 2023.
The relatively speed rate of quite fast interest rate has been inflation in the euro area, which has been less than 3% in terms of the target of 2% of the ECB recently. The economic growth in the region does not have to be.
When the central bank cut the final rates in March, he changed his language around the monetary policy, which was “significant less reduced”. In January, the ECB still had a “restrictive” monetary policy.
Some economist changes in language were interpreted as a sign that politicians were becoming more carefully about increasing interest rates, asking questions to make money easier. But the world of trade and fare in recent weeks has changed this view somewhat.
Target activated growth fears
“After meeting March, the ECB paused at the next meeting.
“Especially after the Europhyforia german fiscal u-turn and after spending more defenses, it was a” liberation day “.
And so “must cut the ECB,” BRZESKI evaluated.
Many US fare plans, along with revenge measures that reveal Washington trading partners have been temporarily reduced or reduced – since the President Donald Trump was previously imposed earlier. But the focus of commercial, fares and macroeconomic falls are still in Ryan Djajasaputra, economist in Investec, expressed in a note.
“Unfortunateness remains high and there is no guarantee to agree on agreements with the US. There is no certainty that they will not change their policies in the future, that is, the nature of the current environment, which supports the trimity of interest rate.
Restrictive rates?
After restrictive rates are still smoothing around restrictive tariffs in March, the ECB can do tweaks again on Thursday.
Ing’s Brzeski said that the Central Bank should “change communication”, the central bank would be a lower deposit rate of 2.25%, “it would be within neutral interest rates”, if the ECB makes another cut.
The subject called the so-called ECB is now discussed in months in months, among politicians, analysts and economists. In a neutral level, interest rates are not stimulating and limited to the economy.
Vow calculation Its neutral rate is between 1.75% and 2.25%.
Deutsche Bank Research economists certainly appeared about potential language changes, and the languages would be believed to be out of Thursday. “Inflation along with the view that is returning to the goal, this does not have a dover smoothness.”
ECB rate Outlook “cloud” according to the US policy
Looking beyond Thursday EU decision, Deutsche Bank research is expected to be “open” to the path of interest rates.
They do not see the ECB approach to the foes that change politicians rates.
“This opening word guidelines allows the restrictive attitude, moving to the neutral or stimulating data,” they said that it was technically possible in June to interrupt the interest in the ECB in June.
The projections of economists, however, took further cutting rate.
In terms of political path, it will depend on the US and development Depending on the global trade, Investec’s Djajasaputra proposed.
“Beyond the April meeting, it is the surface of the ECB’s interest rates, and its hemen is the decision of white house policy.
