Moderna has cut its sales forecast for 2025 by $1 trillion

modern on Monday lowered its 2025 sales guidance by roughly $1 billion due to potential headwinds later this year as the biotech company continues to cut costs and expand its portfolio.

Moderna now expects revenue of between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion in 2025, most of which will come in the second half of the year. Most of these sales will come from Moderna’s Covid-19 shot and newly launched vaccine respiratory syncytial virusaccording to a note.

The orientation is down from a previous one the announcement range of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion issued in September. At the time, the company said it expected to break even on operating income in 2028 — a step back from 2026 — at $6 billion in revenue.

Shares of Modern opened 20% lower on Monday. Other vaccine stocks also fell, with Novavax down 6% in early trade and BioNTech down 4%.

“As we head into 2025, there are quite a few uncertainties that we’re planning for,” Moderna CFO Jamey Mock told CNBC. “From this time frame, we anticipate having headwinds. They could be tailwinds, but for now we’re looking at them as headwinds.”

Mock pointed to four factors that could weigh on sales, including increased competition in the Covid market. He said Moderna’s share of the US retail market for Covid shots had fallen to 40% by the end of 2024 from 48% in 2023, and the company is bracing for another decline this year.

He stated Sanofi will commercialize it NovavaxA new worldwide covid vaccine agreement could make that shot more competitive.

Mock said the second factor is declining vaccination rates, which fell about 7% overall in the US retail market in the fall of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The last two factors are the timing and uncertainty surrounding manufacturing contracts with a few countries. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counselors will recommend RSV revaccination.

But Mock noted that the company expects to reduce capital expenditures by $1 billion by 2025, with plans to cut costs by $500 million by 2026.

“We’re taking the right amount of cost to keep our money,” Mock said. “We are excited to invest and diversify our portfolio.”

The announcement marks a path for Moderna to follow a rapid decline in demand for its Covid vaccine, the only commercially available product until its RSV shot entered the market last year. It also comes before the annual presentation of the modern JPMorgan Health Conferenceone of the largest gatherings of health officials in the world and a hotbed of convention activity for industry.

Revenue from Modern’s two launches met the forecast for 2024, coming in at around $3 billion and $3.1 billion. In November, the company said it had an updated shot at Covid beneficiary Three weeks ahead of previous iterations of the plan in the US in 2023 from gaining approval.

However, these sales represent a significant decline 6.7 billion dollars It booked Moderna’s Covid launch in 2023 and generated $18 billion in 2022 as fewer people rolled up their sleeves for updated jabs.

Moderna plans to boost its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years, including a combination Covid and flu shot and a “next-generation” Covid shot. The company said Monday it could see three approvals in 2025 alone.

The company is betting on a pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, which is the technology used in its Covid vaccine and RSV shot.