It’s time to treat us as a rare time. China already does

In April 2025, China established new export controls in seven strange earth and sustainable magnets in the ground – the materials that make up the foundation of modern life and modern war. Fighters, missilesElectric vehicles, drones, wind turbines and data centers are also based on high-performance magnets from these critical minerals. By limiting their flow, Beijing did not only fluctuated his industrial muscle, revealed the dangerous vulnerability in America and the world. Latest Chinese actions Show American and dependency American or capacity to arm.

This is not a new challenge. The United States has been concentrated for more than 15 years of mineral supplies that were concentrated, fragile and too much Chinese lever and control. And, however, during democratic and republican administrations, we could not respond with a necessity or consistency. Now, the consequences of these failures have taken our neck and the cascading in our trade and defense sectors.

After London talks, Washington and Beijing announced Friday A new commercial framework Under the chat, it approves export licenses for rare land for the next six months. US officials have progressed publicly, but they have offered few details about what they have been given in return. This leaves important answers: What were the US trade? How will the agreement be carried out? And what happens when six months is running?

Skepticism is high. Ford recently gained production in his Chicago plant, due to the shortage of magnets, short-term supplies are real consequences. Paper agreements are not supplied with string solutions. Without transparency, without timely homologation and long-term planning, another diplomatic cycle can be easily converted, two steps back.

Although this limited limit leads to risks. Dozens of companies made in Europe and North America The Chinese export license process is very invasive – Accurate production data, end-use applications, installation images, requires sending customer names and transactions. Some applicants have been denied not to give any photo or documentation of final users.

Directors say that the process is “official extraction of information”.

While the company is not recommended not to share sensitive IPs, the elimination of key details may contain unlimited delays. For defense supply chain companies, implications are disturbing: valuable commercial intelligence to map competitors, prices can be used in advance or pre-substitutes.

This is not only licensed – it is competitive care. And the US has built a safe and independent capacity of the mineral supplies to the critical and independent capacity, which is left in the face of dangers.

This vulnerability did not happen all night. Many have been watching this train of motel movements for years. In 2010, China cut the rare exports of the Earth in a maritime conflict, he warned that the United States. In 2014, the Obama Administration won the Case of WTO against China’s export reductions, but it was wrongly assumed that the legal success would prevent more manipulation.

What Trump, Biden has done

The first administration Trump identified rare critical land but significantly exempt from the Chinese 2018 rates, perhaps acknowledging the US dependency. Biden took the most structured view: 14017 Executive Order, Critical Mineral Working Group and IIJA and IRA financing. Strategic collaborations such as mineral security associations were created. But the progress were slow, allowing delays delays and irregular allies.

The second Trump Administration has returned with aggressive measures, 232. Proclaiming section, activating the defense production law and proposing great boost funding in FY2026. The main energy dominance council coordinates efforts. These measures, however, as the reception of six months of China, is still a short expropriation of Beijing’s adherence. And key, the defense sector is cut, without a licensed window.

The last G7 peak of Canada has emphasized global participation. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen China accused China’s control of his “wire” Above important materials like rare land, calling a joint response from G7. Result: A G7 Critical Mineral Action Plan. Although China is not mentioned according to the name, the subsection is not undeniable. The Plan is committed to G7 members for key resources to collect ESG and traceability standards; Move capital to new critical mineral mines and processing projects; and collaboration in recycling, substitution and refining technologies.

The planned, Beijing reacted with anger. The Ministry of China’s Foreign Affairs protected the plan as “Protect” to “protect”, G7 claiming to lose market fee.

Brussels are signposting that Pekin negotiation negotiations effectively, therefore, the probability of Chinese revenge, especially against the EU – they are rising. If China doubles, he pushes EU, Japan, South Korea and more India in Washington’s orbit – which is what Pekin wants to avoid.

Chinese dominant position in rare mining of the Earth

Gross numbers are being graded. China recounts approximately 70% of the strange land, but more than 90% of the refining capacity. It produces 92% of the Neodymium-Buron (NDFEB) magnets in the world. The submarines use all Teslas. This dominance is not an accident. China subsidized processing, focused on global purchases on the supply chain, and scales production much faster than the West.

Like US sites MP materials‘Mountain passes and remaining incomplete without falling. Dodk and Doe have offered grants, and the FY2026 Trump budget expands mining ability and expands safe access to critical minerals. But all this is noticeable through the ruler and control of the industrial authority of the Chinese head and the sector.

China went early and decidedly in Africa and Latin America, joining the governments of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bolivia and Chile; Investing in port, rail and refining infrastructure. On the contrary, efforts and commitments of these issues have been given parts and valid, giving priority, significant issues, but delivering limited thrust of mineral critical problems. Also the last time in the Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo, for now, hinder conflict and instability in these countries.

London lectures and the last trade advances bought time. But without strategy time is not fertile. The Chinese Licensing Scheme continues its own, its data has not been planned. The defense sector remains closed. Meanwhile, congress threats are cleansing of clean energy and strengthening industrial policy while achieve rare projects.

It’s a decisive moment. China bet the internal department of America – will prevent the formation of the consolidation of the work, industry, environment, international, and political factions. They can be right. The US proves wrong.

Critical minerals are geopolitical powers

The United States should not be treated with critical minerals, but as a tool of geopolitical power. China already does. Escape from his adherence will require more than my permits and short-term financing. It requires a long-term strategy to build a complete supply chain, not only domestic abilities, but also allies and reliable partners. To recycle from mining and improvement, each link must be strengthened to focus on investment, authorized reform and strategic coordination.

Successful and sustainable policy requires commitment from one presidency to another. We don’t let the U.S. allies and partner leave only rhetorically. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile and Indonesia (among others) must protect financing, technology transfer and sustainable collaboration with critical infrastructure investments, not only governance-based talks.

Six-month export from China is not a solution – it’s a stress test. The US reveals whether they can finally focus and act, or whether he will go back again. Beijing is a bet that will be the latter. Washington must be equal to urgency, unity and the scale of the challenge. There is still time, but not a lot.

–By Dewardric McNealManagement of the General Manager of Longview Global and CNBC collaborator and policy analysts