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Hello, this is Ganesh Rao, writing from London. This week, Israel Iran’s conflict was a reminder of the weaknesses of India, and the chances that come out of crisis.
The Indian Army Brahmos Missile System participates in the rehearsal before the day of the Republic of 20025, the Kartavya Way on January 20, 2025, New Delhi, India.
Raj k raj | Hindustan Times | Getty Images
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Great story
The Indian economy dumped last week.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could flip the country. Instead, India was found in the Israeli war for his defense sector to beef.
Two Middle East Countries He agreed to the ceasefire Wednesday, President Donald Trump said in a US bombing campaign Iranian nuclear ambition disappearances. Oil prices provided their short-term profits, removing India from the abyss. But the passage highlighted many Indian weaknesses.
India has no longer purchasing Iranian oil, but 40% of its total raw import still emits the narrow water of the wall The most important sources of world oil. The right one would assume a serious economic fall in the country.
For each increase in gross prices, Indian consumer price inflation can rise in 35-point point, while economic growth can decline 30 points, according to the study of SBI research.
Madan Sabnavis, the main economist of the Baroda Bank, echoed, appreciates, the warning, and while a 10% increase in price rise, $ 100 permanent price can have a big impact “.
The conflict also includes the new Delhi investments in Iran, especially Chabahar port, which is Indian companies manage – The defense relationship with Israel is growing deep and growing.
India is the largest buyer in Israeli arms, accounting for 34% of its defense exports, according to A March 2024 report Stockholm by the International Peace Research Institute. Israel is 13% of India imports.
Last Indian “Sindondo operation“After launching against Pakistan April militant attack Jammu and KashmirIt reveals the depth of this dependence of imports of the arms, depending on the investment bank’s analysts of Jefferies. The operation was used in the mix of new Russian gear and the Israeli new equipment, including Heron surveillance drones, Spyder and Barak-8 surface missile systems.
In Russia, after invading Ukraine, he found India in Moscow, historically became a top arm provider, reliable. Russian defense manufacturing capacity aimed at the needs of the Ukrainian War in Moscow by creating significant delays in the Military Modernization Program of India.
Still worse, analysts emphasize Russian equipment, such as the Indian army staple with T-90s tanks, “underestimated” in Ukraine.
Pivoting for domestic defense
India certainly did not want to endure other delays in recruitment, Iran Israel conflict.
This has created an urgent urgent need in India. Transitions, however, if years are not, 90% of Indian armored vehicles and 70% of his fighting aircraft had originated in 2023, according to Bernstein’s research.
“I definitely think that the desires beginning for Ukrainian Russian invasion,” said Anna Mulholland, leading research to the Emerging Market Equity Research, in the management of Assetical Pictet. The company emerging in the company market The second largest award has India.
“Although the incident of the Middle East, it is not new, the resolution of the people will increase with the biggest defense budgets that speak,” he added.
Opportunity from crisis
Outside of this crisis, India has made the opportunity to grow the home defense industry.
Analysts at JPMorgan identified the last geopolitical conflicts “as a pivotal moment to reveal the abilities of worms”, which is owned by the state Bharat Electronics. Stock this year is about 38%.
“The constant stream of requests, geopolitical risks, and, worldwide and healthier growth, and healthier growth solutions, in our opinion, at the Bank Executive Director, June 23 customers in a note.
The most tangible sign of this pivot is “project Kusha”. The Alternative of India is an alternative to the Russian S-400 Air Defense system. “This program is expected to help the company’s long-term order book in the book” JPMorgan Tiwari added.
India is unlikely to be the lonely customer of these companies. New Delhi is also aimed at the defense manufacturing as an export industry. It aims to export to $ 6 billion in almost 6,000 million, according to Jefferies.
– CNBC Michael Bloom reported reports.
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Dhiraj Nim highlights the rise of the global oil, which turns the risks of Rupee, the ceasefire between Iran and Israel “stabilizes the feeling of the basket and improved the moving period of currency.
Frederic Neumann, Economist in Asia at HSBC and Tim Seymour, Cio Seymour Asset Management, Korea, India, Vietnam.
Need to know
India will create a 100 million dollar technology company. This is the General Director of Prosus, one of the largest technological investors in the world. Proseus has invested Indian technology companiesSuch payment service Payu and e-commerce company MeEesho.
A mixed image for Indian economy. India Reserve Bank highlighted factory and services to be healthy, but The city demand slowed sharply.
Capital injection Air India. In India 24-25, Tata sons and Singapore Airlines 9,588 crore pumped Indian rupees ($ 1.1 million) in the airline. Air India is being treated with A Air tragic accident on June 12.
– Yeo Boon Ping
What happened in the markets?
A Nifty 50 Hit 2025 high at 25,549 points. Investors went to equities after facilitating strains in the Middle East. The index added more than 2% since last week and earned more than 7%.
The 10-year-old Indian government bond referenced 3 base points fell compared to last week and works by 6.27%.
What about next week?
June 30: India Industry Departure in May
July 1: Industrial Gas Manufacturer Ellenbarrie Gas Industrial IPO, Construction Agency Balloon Civil Projects IPO, PMI manufacture
July 2: Loan Supplier HDB Financial Services IPO
July 3: India Services PMI in June
