Hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza rise as pressure on Hamas and Israel mounts

The outline of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal that Israel and Hamas are discussing in indirect talks in Doha has been on the table since May. So why is there a new outlook that might work, after being frozen for eight months of war?

Many things have changed, both politically and on the ground.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States.

has He threatened that “all hell” would break loose if the hostages were not released before he took office on January 20.

Hamas may well read this as a sign that even the weak brakes the Biden administration used to try to hold back the Israeli government would be removed, though it’s hard to imagine what that might mean for a land so torn by 15 months of war. .

Israel is also feeling pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to derail Trump’s hopes for a broader regional accord and his desired image as a president who ends wars.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under constant pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.

But Trump could also be useful for him if his allies swallow the agreement and stay in government; The new US president and the man he chose as ambassador to Israel is seen as a supporter of Israel’s occupied West Bank settlements, Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. He said he wants to add it.

But after a meeting with the prime minister last night, Smotrich appeared unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and that he would not accept it.

Some Israelis, however, believe that both Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their role in the Israeli government as their best chance to consolidate control over the West Bank, especially when Trump returns. The White House, and they are unlikely to follow through on threats to leave.

The second thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from his military establishment.

Key figures have repeatedly challenged him to continue the war as military objectives dwindle after the death of Hamas’ top leader and the decimation of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, shining a new spotlight on the cost of the war to Israel and the perennial question of whether Netanyahu’s promised “total victory” against Hamas can be achieved.

Some analysts now suggest that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is being defeated, so Israel needs to rethink its strategy.

And here, too, there is a third change, at the regional level, playing into the change in expectations: the weakening and erosion of Hamas’ allies. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, now is seen as the best chance in months to mend the bridges between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn’t changed in the eight months since they last negotiated are the gaps between them.

Among them, there is a direct conflict between the main concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and Israel, which wants to keep the door open to resuming the conflict, for political or military reasons.

deal, As President Joe Biden stated in Mayit is divided into three phases, and the permanent ceasefire will come into force only in the second phase.

Success now will likely depend on whether assurances can be found to allay Hamas’ fears that Israel will pull out of the deal after the first phase of releasing Israeli hostages.

Questions about how to administer the territory Israel is retreating from are also unclear at this stage.

But the network of diplomacy that has been crisscrossing the region in the past week and the fact that Netanyahu has sent the heads of Israel’s security agencies to the Doha talks, along with a top political adviser, are encouraging signs.

Also the departure of Qadoura Fares, the coordinator of Palestinian detainees, to Doha.

The deal has not yet been done, and talks have collapsed before.

This old agreement raises new hopes, in part because the negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, under increasing pressure both at home and from key allies abroad.