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- Gold price extends losses after core PCE inflation for May rises in May, creating a mixed picture on the trajectory of interest rates.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to provide further insight into consumer confidence and expectations for the US economy, which may serve as an additional catalyst for bullion.
- XAU/USD falls below $3,300, with the RSI hinting at a deeper correction as trade deal optimism provides additional support to risk assets.
Gold (XAU/USD) is suffering another setback after reports telling that China and the United States have reached a trade deal continued to support demand for risk assets.
As risk appetite continues to improve, the precious metal has been under pressure this week. With safe-haven flows shifting toward riskier assets, Gold is trading below $3,300 at the time of writing on Friday, with losses of more than 2%.
US inflation data for May shows core PCE rising above analys estimates, providing a mixed picture for the Fed
The release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on Friday has placed additional pressure on the US Dollar but did little to boost Gold.
This important dataset measures the pace at which prices of goods and services are rising and is released on a monthly basis. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, which plays a significant role in setting expectations for interest rates.
The headline PCE inflation figures for May came in line with expectations. The monthly figure rose by 0.1%, unchanged from April, while the year-over-year rate increased to 2.3%, slightly above April’s 2.2%, and in line with forecasts.
However, the core PCE data—which excludes volatile components such as food and energy—surprised to the upside. Both the monthly and annual figures came in hotter than expected. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, ahead of the 0.1% estimate, while the annual rate climbed to 2.7%, surpassing expectations for an unchanged reading from April’s 2.6%.
In contrast, broader consumption data disappointed. Personal income fell by 0.4% in May, well below the expected 0.3% increase and a sharp reversal from April’s 0.7% gain. Personal spending also declined by 0.1%, missing the consensus forecast for a 0.1% rise and down from the prior month’s 0.2%.
As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the rise in core PCE complicates the policy outlook. President Donald Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates to support growth, but such action typically fuels inflation—already above the central bank’s 2% target.
Still, with income and spending data showing clear signs of economic fatigue, the Fed may be forced to weigh inflation against the risk of a broader slowdown. For markets, this opens the door to a dovish shift in tone, potentially paving the way for a rate cut as early as July.
Moreover, President Trump is putting immense pressure on the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy.
A major concern for the Fed has been the impact of tariffs on inflation. A trade deal with China, which has resulted in a pause of higher reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until August 12, could alleviate some of the pressure that potential higher tariffs may have on the US economy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut in September has increased to 72%, with markets anticipating rates to fall by at least 50 bps by year-end.
While lower rates bode well for Gold, the increase in demand for equities and riskier assets may continue to weigh on bullion in the short term.
Daily digest market movers: Gold awaits the release of key US economic data as safe-haven demand fades
- Thursday’s final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the first quarter showed that the US economy had contracted by 0.5%, as imports increased before the imposition of the higher tariff rates announced by Trump on “Liberation Day.”
- The table below illustrates the breakdown of the Q1 GDP components released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday.
- Since consumer spending accounts for a substantial portion of the US GDP, a significant decline could enhance the prospects of a July rate cut.
- At 14:00 GMT, the University of Michigan (UoM) will release the final Consumer Sentiment numbers for June, representing how individuals perceive the current economic conditions.
- Consumer Expectations, reflecting potential changes in prices over the next 12 months, will also be closely monitored. Along with the 1 and 5-year Inflation Expectations numbers for June, which are expected to come in at 5.1% and 4.1% respectively.
- The Bank Stress Test, published by the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, will be released at 20:30 GMT. This report outlines how the largest U.S. banking institutions would perform under various adverse economic scenarios. It is designed to evaluate the resilience of the financial system; the test assesses how these banks would respond to severe financial shocks.
- The results can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and help gauge potential risks to its long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
- For Gold, the culmination of these data releases may play an important role in determining the direction of XAU/USD. Especially once the latest US-China progress on trade talks has been digested by markets, investors focus on the broader macroeconomic environment.
Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD extends losses as bearish momentum pushes the RSI toward oversold terriitory
Gold remains under pressure, with prices trading below the key psychological level of $3,300, which now provides near-term resistance for the yellow metal.
Above that is the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $3,324 and the 20-day SMA near $3,356.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 30, a potential sign of oversold conditions.
In the bearish scenario, a sustained break below the mid-point of the April low-high move, represented by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, provides support at $3,228. A break of which could open the door toward the $3,200 psychological handle. The 100-day SMA at $3,164 acts as a deeper support level.
Gold daily chart
On the other hand, the bullish scenario would require a decisive recovery above the 20-day SMA, potentially reigniting upside momentum toward the $3,400 and $3,452 resistance levels. Until such a move materializes, Gold may remain vulnerable to deeper retracements within its broader consolidation pattern.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
