Gold bulls not ready to give up amid supportive fundamental backdrop

• Gold price drifts lower on Friday amid some profit-taking, though it lacks follow-through.
• The risk-on mood and a modest USD rebound exert some pressure on the precious metal.
• Trade jitters and bets for a September rate cut by the Fed lend support to the XAU/USD pair.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trims a part of modest intraday losses, though remains depressed below the $3,400 mark and over a two-week high touched earlier this Friday. Against the backdrop of the upbeat market mood, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick prompts some profit-taking around the commodity following the recent move higher over the past week or so. However, a combination of factors helps limit the downside for the precious metal.

US President Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats this week keep investors on edge and continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September keeps a lid on any meaningful USD gains and further offers some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. This warrants caution before placing bearish bets around the XAU/USD pair.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bears seem non-committed amid trade jitters, Fed rate cut bets

• The US Dollar recovers slightly from a nearly two-week low touched the previous day. Moreover, Asian stocks rose for the fifth consecutive day and seem poised to register the best week since June, which, in turn, prompts some profit-taking around the Gold price on Friday.
• US President Donald Trump imposed additional levies on Indian imports as “punishment” for buying oil from Russia, taking the total tariffs to 50%. Trump had also announced this week that tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will be imposed within the next week or so.
• The developments revive concerns about the potential economic fallout from a global trade war. Adding to this, official data on Thursday showed that China’s central bank extended Gold purchases for the ninth straight month in July. This could act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
• Traders ramped up their bets that the US Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in September after the US Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday. Adding to this, the US Jobless Claims rose for the second straight week and pointed to a deterioration in labor market conditions.
• In fact, the US Labor Department reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up to a seasonally adjusted 226K during the week ended August 2. This marked the highest level since the week ending July 5.
• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders see over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at the next monetary policy meeting in September. Moreover, the Fed is expected to deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of this year.
• Meanwhile, Trump nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the rest of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s term until January 31, 2026. Furthermore, Trump has shortlisted four candidates as replacements for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• This might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap the upside, which could lend support to the commodity. In the absence of any relevant macro data, speeches from influential FOMC members might provide some impetus to the XAU/USD pair.

Gold price needs to find acceptance above $3,400 to back the case for any further appreciating move

From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained strength beyond the $3,383-3,385 supply zone and positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the upside. However, the Asian session uptick falters near a resistance marked by the top boundary of the weekly uptrend. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $3,309-3,310 region before positioning for further gains. The momentum might then lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $3,422-3,423 area en route to the $3,434-3,435 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter should pave the way for a move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April.

On the flip side, weakness below the trading range resistance breakpoint, around the $3,385-3,383 region, could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain cushioned near the $3,353-3,350 area. The latter represents the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the $3,315 intermediate support en route to the $3,300 round figure and the $3,268 region, or a one-month low touched last week.