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- Gold bounces off intraday lows near $3,350 as US yields and the US Dollar retreat following soft ISM PMI data.
- US Treasury yields and the US Dollar remain broadly pressured, limiting downside in the Gold as Fed rate cut bets gain traction.
- Market pricing reflects a 92% chance of an interest rate cut in September.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends gains for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday after finding strong support near the $3,350 region, reversing an earlier pullback. The yellow metal had been drifting lower through the European session, struggling to extend Monday’s rebound amid a firmer risk tone and a modest uptick in US Treasury yields. However, buyers stepped in near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), lifting prices off intraday lows. The recovery is being supported by continued weakness in the US Dollar, as markets maintain a strong conviction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is ticking lower, hovering around $3,380 during American trading hours, up 0.20% on the day.
Investors are turning their attention to trade-related headlines, particularly developments surrounding US tariffs, which could inject fresh volatility into global markets.
On the data front, it is a relatively quiet day. The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July came in at 55.7, slightly beating expectations of 55.2, while the Composite PMI rose to 55.1 from 54.6, signaling continued resilience in private sector activity. However, the ISM Services PMI disappointed, easing to 50.1 versus forecasts of 51.5, as New Orders and Employment components both softened.
The broader market tone remains risk-on, which may keep Gold rangebound in the near term as safe-haven demand stays subdued
Markets across regions have rebounded strongly from last week’s losses. The MSCI All-Country World Index snapped a six-day losing streak, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.6%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 280 points on Tuesday. European stocks are also extending gains for the second straight session, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 up around 0.4%. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 is trading near record highs, pushing toward the 9,150 mark. On Wall Street, major indices staged a sharp rebound on Monday. The S&P 500 surged 1.5%, ending a four-day losing streak, while the Dow Jones jumped 585 points and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.9%.
Market optimism is being fueled by expectations that the Fed may resume cutting interest rates as early as September, following last week’s soft US jobs report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate cut at the September monetary policy meeting. These dovish expectations are keeping US bond yields and the US Dollar capped, which continues to act as a cushion for Gold prices despite near-term headwinds.
Market movers: US yields rebound modestly after hitting one-month lows, Dollar finds footing
- The ISM Services Employment Index dropped to 46.4 from 47.2, signaling ongoing weakness in services hiring, while the New Orders Index fell to 50.3 from 51.3. Notably, the Prices Paid Index surged to 69.9, up sharply from 67.5, suggesting that cost pressures remain elevated despite slowing activity.
- US Treasury yields fell to fresh one-month lows on Monday, extending Friday’s slide as weak Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and sharp downward revisions fueled a bond rally. The 10-year yield dropped 6 basis points to close at 4.19%, after touching a high of 4.25%, while the 30-year yield fell 8 basis points to end at 4.78%, down from an intraday peak of 4.86%. Yields rebounded modestly earlier on Tuesday, but those gains have since faded. At the time of writing, the 10-year yield is back at 4.19%, while the 30-year holds steady at 4.78%, reflecting renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid soft economic data.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the value of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is drifting lower erasing earlier intraday gains following mixed US PMI data. At the time of writing, the index is hovering around 98.70, as investors digest signs of cooling momentum in the services sector.
- According to ANZ, total gold demand rose to 2,384 tonnes in H1 2025, marking the strongest first-half performance since 2013. A sharp pickup in investment demand, driven by both retail and ETF inflows, offset weakness in jewellery consumption. Investment demand topped 1,000 tonnes, with Gold-backed ETFs seeing net inflows of 397 tonnes, reversing last year’s outflows, while retail investment climbed 38 tonnes to 636 tonnes.
- Despite an 18% year-over-year drop in jewellery demand to 782 tonnes, macro headwinds such as slowing global growth, sticky inflation, geopolitical tensions, and tariff risks are reinforcing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. While central bank buying slowed to 415 tonnes in H1, ANZ expects annual purchases to remain robust in the 900-950 tonne range for 2025, providing continued support for Gold prices.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back slightly against aggressive rate cut pricing. While acknowledging that the labor market is softening, she noted in a Reuters interview that it is “not precariously weak,” and warned that further weakening would be unwelcome. Daly added that she was willing to wait another cycle in July but emphasized the Fed “can’t wait forever.” She also noted there is still a lot of uncertainty over whether a September rate cut would be appropriate, but played down concerns that tariffs are creating persistent inflation pressures. Markets took Daly’s comments as further evidence that the Fed might be ready to cut rates in September.
- Alongside the ISM Services PMI and S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs, Tuesday’s US calendar featured updates on the Goods and Services Trade Balance and Redbook retail sales. While not blockbuster releases on their own, the data could offer additional clues on underlying economic momentum, particularly in consumption, services activity, and external trade.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD clings to support near $3,350
Gold (XAU/USD) is having trouble building on last week’s rebound, with prices currently hovering near $3,350.
After breaking below an ascending triangle pattern and briefly hitting a one-month low last week, the metal found support just above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting bears still lack conviction.
The metal is now trading slightly above the 50-day SMA, which acts as immediate support, followed by the 100-day SMA. If prices break lower, the next targets could be around $3,275 and $3,200.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits in neutral territory around 51, pointing to a lack of clear momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line, but a flattening histogram hints that bearish pressure may be easing.
On the upside, if bulls can reclaim the broken triangle base and push decisively above $3,380, a move toward $3,450 is possible, potentially putting all-time highs back in sight.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
