College Football Playoff: Ohio State vs Texas – Prediction, UPDATED Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup & Stats

Ohio State (11-2) may have suffered a humiliating loss at the hands of its predecessor Michigan, but they didn’t let that setback cloud their overall goal of winning a national championship. They shut down Tennessee’s passing offense (14-of-31, 104 yards, 0-for-0) as the Vols were unable to rally from an early 21-0 deficit in the first quarter en route to a first-round victory by 42-17. Against Oregon, DC Jim Knowles held them to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries, while OSU broke the game open with 5 straight explosive 30+ yard touchdowns before the Ducks even scored a point.

OSU’s devastating offense ranks in the Top 10 on each side of the ball in completion rate, EPA/game and marginal efficiency. The main areas of weakness on offense are Ohio State’s O-line’s ability to handle extra rushes, ranking 78th with a 9.2% pass breakup rate and a slightly increased 10.2% run blocking rate that checks in at 94th in the country.
OSU’s defense is elite, ranking first overall in the FBS by SP+. Their secondary faces the fifth fewest deep passes in the country, completing just 9.3% of its passes 20+ yards downfield. OSU’s elite defensive line ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sensational 9.8%% linebacker rate, forcing teams to rely on quick, structured throws. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat increased completion rate of 60.1% (63rd), but they’re still 3rd in overall EPA/dropback, so the snaps and screens haven’t hurt them.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas (13-2) in the postseason for the first time since 2009. While UT struggled with the vast majority of its 22nd-ranked schedule, Texas was unable to avenge its only loss to Georgia in a close decision 22-19 in the SEC Championship.

In the first round of the CFP playoffs, Texas ran for 292 yards and 6.1 YPC against an overmatched Clemson front and cruised to an easy 38-24 victory. It was a much more competitive double-overtime affair in the quarterfinals against Arizona State, where a late interception and a no-target call on the same play gave Texas a late-game lead that had ASU fans on their toes. The Longhorns held on for a 39-31 victory despite being outscored 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, although some of that deficit can be explained somewhat by the game script with Texas up 17-3 at halftime.

Offensively, the Longhorns are eighth in SP+, 13th in rushing success rate and third in explosive play rate (9.6%). UT also has a top secondary unit that ranks first in return yards allowed (4.1) and ranks third with a 5.2% interception rate. They’re no pushovers in run defense either, ranking seventh in EPA/rush, and their pass rush is coming home at an 8.8% clip (sixth in FBS).

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Game details and how to watch the 2025 college football playoff semifinal Texas vs. Ohio State

· Date: Wednesday 10.01.2025
· time: 4:30 PM EST
· Website: AT&T Stadium
· City: Arlington, TX
· TV/streaming: ESPN

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2025 College Football Playoff Semifinals Texas vs. Ohio State

• Moneyline: Ohio State Buckeyes (-225), Texas Longhorns (+185)
• Expansion: Buckeyes -5.5
• More/Less: 53.5 points

The spread opened Ohio State -6/6.5, just below the key number of -7 after their complete dismemberment of Oregon. BetMGM’s +185 is the best odds you’ll get on Texas being downright hapless, while BOL has the best line on OSU at -210. The total amount of the game is between the range of 53.5 to 55 in early trading.

Ohio State vs. Expert Tips and Predictions Texas

NBC Sports Betting Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Ohio State hit another gear in the CFP playoffs, defeating Tennessee and Oregon by a combined score of 83-38. Texas is coming off a heartbreaking 39-31 double-overtime win over ASU in a game in which they jumped out to a 17-3 halftime lead before stumbling through the second half. It’s hard for me to pick against the Buckeyes given the constant pressure they had while only bringing four rushes. I’m taking -6/6.5 and taking the Buckeyes.”

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2025 College Football Playoff Quarterback Game Texas vs. Ohio State

• Texas: The Longhorns boast one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the country between rookie Quinn Ewers and backup Arch Manning. Ewers completed 66.5% of his throws for 3,189 yards, 7.9 YPA and a 29-to-11 ratio. Despite his respectable numbers, his PFF passer rating of 73.6 ranks 51st out of 94 qualified FBS signal callers and is a noticeable drop from his 85.6 passer rating in 2023. Ewers averages a noticeably low 7.8 air yards per target, which is second out of 8th. top 94 quarterbacks. HC Sarkisian has been fairly conservative in his game now that he has a reliably elite defense to rely on, and the Longhorns are throwing 35.1% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. His 48.6 PFF pressure grade ranks 52nd out of 89 tight ends, so Ohio State’s front four will be counted on to bring the heat.

• Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons working in Kansas State’s offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads a dominant OSU offense that is outscoring its opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, the largest margin of victory in the nation. He’s completing a surgical 72.6% of his throws (2nd in the FBS) and is working with future NFL first rounders in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ relentlessly efficient offense ranks third in completion rate (53.4%) and seventh in yards per return (8.3) despite throwing just 10.3% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (121st). Howard’s 84th percentile passing grade ranks 11th among power four signal callers and is the best mark of his five-year career, with the previous high being 72.7.

Ohio State vs. Texas: Betting Trends and Recent Stats

• Texas is 2-7 (.200) against the spread when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season, 11th-worst among Power Conference teams. (Avg: .315)
• Quinn Ewers has thrown just one interception in 123 4th quarter attempts since the 2023 season, 2nd best among Power Conference quarterbacks
• Texas is 8-7 (.500) against the spread when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season, 27th best in the FBS. (Avg: .425)
• Texas has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion this season, best in the FBS.
• Texas has allowed 100.2 scrimmage yards per game to WRs this season, best in the SEC.
• Texas has allowed 17 rushing TDs on 136 carries in the red zone since the 2023 season, 2nd best in the FBS.
• Quinshon Judkins averaged 6.2 scrimmage yards per touch in the first half this season, the best among Big Ten running backs. TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 20+ yards on 18 of his 274 carries since the 2023 season, 2nd best among Big Ten Running Backs.
• Opponents at Ohio State have averaged 10.3 TD passes in the red zone this season, best among Power Conference teams. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just a 38.7% completion rate when defending in the red zone this season, best among Big Ten defenses.
• Ohio State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts this season– 2nd best among Power Conference teams;
• Ohio State has not tackled an opponent for a loss on any of its 33 rushing attempts on third-and-short this season, tied for worst among power conference teams with Rutgers (0-30).
• Will Howard has been sacked 9.0 times on 343.0 pass attempts this season, third most among Power Conference quarterbacks.

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