College Football Playoff: Notre Dame vs. Penn State – Predictions, Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchups & Trends

The Nittany Lions (13-2) cruised through the first half of their B10 schedule, with their closest win coming in a dramatic Week 7 33-30 comeback win over @USC , where PSU still had an 86% expected win despite a close to the result. Each of their other 10 regular season wins had a near perfect 94%+ Win Expectation, and PSU showed a thorough mastery of their B10 regular season schedule. Penn State was unable to stop Oregon’s offense in the Big Ten Championship, allowing 496 total yards in a 45-37 decision over the then-undefeated Ducks.

The Nittany Lions destroyed SMU in the first round of the CFP playoffs, sacking QB Kevin Jennings three times while holding the Mustangs to 58 yards on 36 carries (1.6 YPC) en route to a 38-10 victory. It was the same against Boise State last round, with PSU stifling Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty and company for 108 yards on 40 carries for a comfortable 31-14 win.

OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in efficiency, 5th in EPA/game and 2nd in marginal efficiency. Their main offensive flaw is PSU’s relative lack of big play ability, ranking 92nd in yards per play and 59th in explosiveness.

The Nittany Lions Defense was once again a wrecking crew, ranking 7th in SP+ with a secondary allowing just 5.2 yards per punt return (14th in FBS). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft Edge Abdul Carter fumbled last game but should play and leads 9th overall with 42.3% pressure rate and 25th in sacks per return (7.8% ).

Notre Dame (12-1) didn’t let a disappointing Week 2 loss to 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois spoil their season, winning 10 straight games to punch their ticket to the CFP playoffs.

The Irish’s main criticism stems from their soft schedule at No. 63 that includes wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and USC. To their credit, all of Notre Dame’s regular season wins were by 10+ points, except for a 31-24 win over Louisville.

ND hosted the first College Football Playoff game even held on a college campus when they welcomed in-state rival Indiana in the first round. They quickly jumped out to a comfortable 27-3 lead before IU scored two late touchdowns with less than 1:30 left in regulation to make it a somewhat deceptive 27-17 final in a game Notre Dame completely controlled from of Jeremiah Love’s Q1 98-yard touchdown run.

Although ND lost two NFL-caliber tackles from last year’s offensive line, they haven’t lost a step in the running game ranking second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.7 yards per carry and a sensational 3.94 YAC which is tops in the FBS.

Their high school is affirmatively elite, ranking #1 nationally in pass success rate (29.7%), EPA/return rate and completion rate (48.7%). Their run defense has some vulnerability with star DT Riley Mills sporting a troubling 129th in completion rate (14%) and 65th in rushing success heading into the semifinal matchup.

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Game details and how to watch the 2025 college playoff semifinals: Notre Dame vs. Penn State

• Date: Thursday, January 9
• 2025 · Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium
• City: Miami Gardens, FL
• TV/Streaming: ESPN

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2025 College Football Playoff Semifinals Notre Dame Vs. Penn State

• Moneyline: Notre Dame (-125), Penn State (+105)
• Expansion: Notre Dame -1.5
• More/Less: 46.5 points

Notre Dame opened as -1.5/-122 favorites and has reached -2/-130 in some places. He could potentially go as high as -2.5, but it’s unlikely he’ll reach -3 in such a close matchup. The total number of games fell to 46.5, which was stable in all segments, with the exception of Caesar’s, which currently showed as high as 47.

Expert picks and predictions for the CFP semifinals: Notre Dame vs. Penn State

NBC Sports Betting Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I have big questions about Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball effectively, as Jeremiah Love has left each of the last three games with an injury. Conversely, the loss of DT Riley Mills compromises an already shaky ND run defense. I feel Penn State has more explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball and will be able to control the line of scrimmage. I’m rooting for Penn State and taking +2 points in what should be competitive.”

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Quarterback matchup for 2025 college playoff semifinal: Notre Dame vs. Penn State

• Lady: QB Riley Leonard spent his first three seasons at Duke, breaking out in 2022 but regressing in 2023 due to a nagging ankle injury that hampered his productivity, making just 57% of his throws on 3-for-3. Now fully healthy, Leonard completes 66.3% of his throws with an 18-to-6 ratio and an 83rd percentile offensive rating that ranks 20th among those they call the signal Power Four. His dual-threat ability allows Leonard to avoid the rush with an 11.5% pressure rate (6th in P4), while posting three straight seasons with an 80%+ rate.

• Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar suffered a knee injury and was questionable leading up to their key game at Ohio State, but the grizzled vet was able to pull through, showing tremendous leadership and grit despite a 20-13 loss. Allar ranks 16th nationally with an 85.4 PFF overall grade and handles the rush expertly, ranking 7th in the FBS with a 69.% pressure rating. As a team, PSU ranks No. 2 in passing success and gains a first down on 61.7% of its completions (6th in the FBS). Allar doesn’t put the ball in the air in PSU’s run-heavy offense, throwing just 24.7 passes per game which ranks 53rd out of 57 Power Four quarterbacks with 200+ attempts. He’s averaging 0.3 interceptions per game since 2023, tied for the best interception rate over the past two seasons with Missouri’s Brady Cook.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State: Trends and recent statistics

• Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts has intercepted 12 passes since the 2023 season, the most among FBS defensive players.
• Notre Dame has allowed 159.8 passing yards per game since the 2023 season, 2nd best in the FBS. Notre Dame has allowed just 113.4 yards per game to WRs since the 2023 season, 2nd best in the FBS.
• Riley Leonard averaged just 10.6 yards per completion this season – T-5. lowest among Power Conference Quarterbacks.
• Notre Dame’s RBs have rushed for 4,415 yards on 714 carries (6.2 YPC) since the 2023 season, 2nd best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 2.7 YPC since the 2023 season, best among Big Ten defenses.
• Notre Dame is 20-4 (.800) against the spread when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season, 2nd best among Power Conference teams. (Average: .539). Penn State is 1-7 (.125) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference teams; (Avg: .430)
• Notre Dame has not faced opponents for a loss on any of its 36 rushing attempts on third-and-short this season, tied for the worst in the FBS.
• Penn State TEs have 19 receptions of 20 or more yards this season, second most among FBS teams.
• Drew Allar has rushed for 10 Red Zone TDs since the 2023 season, 2nd most among Big Ten Quarterbacks
• Kaytron Allen has rushed for 12 TDs on 67 carries in the Red Zone since the 2023 season, the 10th-worst Carry to TD rate among Big Ten Running Backs.
• Penn State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 4 of 748 attempts since the 2023 season, 2nd best in the FBS.
• Penn State is 2-6 (.250) against the spread when they throw at least 1 interception since the 2023 season, 6th worst in the FBS. (Avg: .379)
• Penn State has held opponents for a loss on 210 of 886 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season, best in the Big Ten.
• Notre Dame has gained 2,645 yards on 251 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season, 8th worst among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 yards per reception this season, 20th best among FBS defenses.

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (open for now)
· Ohio State +700 to +125
· Texas +1000 to +300
· Penn State +2500 to +500
· Notre Dame +3000 to +700

Top Lever%
· Ohio State 22.0%
· Texas 10.3%

The biggest obligations
· Ohio State
· Notre Dame

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