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In the first round of the College Football Playoff, teams that went 5-8 all won.
In the second round, everyone won again.
The moral of the story: who knows, except that something doesn’t quite add up when none of the top four teams, all of whom received first-round byes, make college football’s Final Four.
Semifinals Set: In the Orange Bowl, it will be No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame. Then, in the Cotton Bowl, it will be No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State.
Appropriately enough given the way the second round played out, the lowest-seeded team, the Buckeyes, are now favorites — and pretty much so — at 11-10 to win it all at BetMGM Sportsbook.
These matchups ensure that a team with a long pedigree and a big name will carry the championship trophy when the first 12-team playoff concludes in Atlanta on January 20.
Also, the Penn State-Notre Dame game guarantees that either James Franklin or Marcus Freeman will have a chance to become the first black coach to win a title at college football’s highest level.
One thing this extended tournament could still use – a well-played, truly excellent game of football. Aside from Texas’ double-overtime win over Arizona State, all of these playoff games were double-digit shutouts.
A brief look at the four candidates.
no. 5 Texas (13-2)
Storyline: The Longhorns are 0-2 against Georgia and don’t have to worry about the Dawgs anymore. They are 13-0 against the rest of the country.
The Player: Receiver Matthew Golden had seven catches for 149 yards, a touchdown and a key two-point conversion in the second overtime win over Arizona State to erase a lot of questionable stuff from his quarterback, Quinn Ewers.
Money Matters: The On3 NIL tracker has Arch Manning—Peyton and Eli’s nephew—leading the country with $6.6 million in earnings. Not bad for a backup quarterback, though Manning stepped in ably, starting two games in place of an injured Ewers in September to lead the Longhorns to wins.
Mysteries of history: The program with the third-most bowl appearances hasn’t won a state title since 2005. Before that, it was 1981.
He said, “We’re not in awe of, ‘Hey, this is where we are.’ This is where we should be.” —Coach Steve Sarkisian after Arizona State’s win.
no. 6 Penn State (13-2)
Storyline: After losing to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, Franklin’s record against teams in the AP Top 10 dropped to 3-19. Oregon no longer plays; It’s Ohio State and Franklin’s record against the Buckeyes is 1-10.
Player: Tyler Warren may have played the highest position on the NFL draft board this season. In a 31-14 win over Boise State, two of his six catches were for touchdowns.
Money matters: Quarterback Drew Allar makes about $4 million. He has committed to return for his senior season, though this strong playoff run could change the calculus.
History’s Mysteries: The Nittany Lions and Notre Dame used to be two of the top independents in the country, so it made sense that they played every year from 1981-1992. But their only bowl game was a little-noticed 20-9 victory over Notre Dame in the 1976 Gator Bowl.
He said, “A lot of college coaches I saw this week were talking about, ‘It’s a four-game season.’ It’s not. This is a one-game season.” —Franklin, after the first-round win over SMU, on the week-to-week nature of the first 12-team college playoff.
no. 7 Notre Dame (13-1)
The story: When the Irish lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, Notre Dame’s odds to win the national title rose to 100-1. Twelve wins later, including two in double figures in the playoffs, and they are 7-1.
Player: Let’s give this to the coach. Marty Biagi is in charge of a special teams unit that returned a kickoff for a touchdown, kicked three field goals and lured Georgia into a crucial offsides penalty in the fourth quarter by quickly ejecting his entire punt team for a fourth-and-1 offense.
Money matters: QB Riley Leonard is making about $1 million after transferring to South Bend from Duke.
Historical Mysteries: Notre Dame hasn’t won a major bowl game since Jan. 1, 1994, when it beat Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. The program that gave us everyone from the Gipper to Joe Montana is looking for its first title since 1988.
He said: “We’ve been here before. Now is the time to fix it. We have to fix it and go back to playing football the way we know how to play, we played before, we can and we want to.” —Freeman after the Sept. 7 loss to Northern Illinois.
no. 8 Ohio State (12-2)
Storyline: After posting their fourth straight loss against Michigan by standing on the field looking lost as the Wolverines started a melee by planting the team flag at the 50-yard line, there was good reason to think coach Ryan Day might just hold on their job by somehow coming together to win a national title that was unlikely.
Player: WR Jeremiah Smith has 290 yards and four touchdowns in the playoffs. He had a pair of one-handed catches in an early-season win over Michigan State that put the “playmaker” tag all over the highly touted freshman.
Money matters: Smith is believed to have about $3.7 million in NIL deals.
Mysteries of history: With Urban Meyer as coach, Ohio State won the first CFP playoff, a four-team affair that closed the season in 2014. Since then, the Buckeyes are 3-4 in five playoff appearances.
He said, “At the end of the day, we wanted to win a national championship, and the way we got here was not what we expected.” —The day after the win over Oregon.
