Can ‘progressive’ opposition break through Marcos, Duterte dominance in 2028?

With the surprising victories of opposition-allied candidates Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan in the 2025 senatorial race, attention is now on the progressives’ chances in the 2028 presidential elections — more plausible now given the midterm turnout.

Opposition Senator Risa Hontiveros, the lone dissenting voice in the 19th Congress, wasn’t spared from questions about her 2028 political plans. She said that she’s “not saying no” to the possibility of being the opposition’s standard-bearer, should she be chosen.

“I’m not saying no. I’m open to all possibilities. At ‘yun ‘yung hinihingi ko din sa lahat na mga kasama sa oposisyon or independent bloc na maging bukas kami sa lahat ng possibilities at sa isa’t isa, alang-alang sa oposisyon at alang-alang sa ating mga kababayan,” Hontiveros told Senate reporters on May 21, when asked if she was open to run for president. (READ: Who will form the Senate minority bloc in the 20th Congress?)

(And that’s what I’m also asking from everyone in the opposition or independent bloc — that we remain open to all possibilities and to one another, for the sake of the opposition and, more importantly, for the sake of our fellow Filipinos.)

Hontiveros emerging as the opposition’s standard-bearer in the 2028 presidential elections is far from a long shot. She is currently serving her final term in the Senate, which ends in 2028. Meanwhile, Aquino and Pangilinan — who just staged political comebacks — will assume office on June 30, with their terms ending in 2031. (READ: How Kiko-Bam made a successful Senate comeback)

Hontiveros, who chairs the Senate committee on women, has led several significant investigations since taking office in 2016. Her path to the Senate wasn’t easy — it took her three attempts to finally secure a seat. Hontiveros’ recent committee probe into illegal activities of Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) resulted in a total ban, which was supported by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., despite their political differences.

Her proactive dissent on China’s aggression in the West Philippine Sea gained support not only from the liberal camp, but also from administration allies — making it one of the rare issues where opposing sides, except Duterte supporters, found common ground.

She was the only senator to stand up against Vice President Sara Duterte’s use of confidential funds and to fiercely challenge her demeanor in the Senate. (READ: At OVP budget hearing, Hontiveros reminds Sara: ‘Not everything’s about you’)

9 months: Consolidation of opposition forces

Recognizing the need for consolidation and unity among opposition forces, Hontiveros said the next nine months will be crucial for them — alongside Aquino and Pangilinan — to strategize what a “genuine” opposition should look like amid the political noise dominated by two powerful clans.

“May experience na kami working together with other blocs sa Democratic Left, and may mga sections na nandun na sa hanay ng sumuporta sa Kiko-Bam, Akbayan, ML, et cetera na meron na rin historic working relationships with other forces beyond ‘yung nakasanayan naming DemLeft. So, let’s see kung papaano mag-evolve ‘yung confidence-building process,” Hontiveros said.

(We already have experience working together with other blocs within the Democratic Left, and there are groups that were part of the coalition that supported Kiko and Bam — like Akbayan, ML, and others — that also have historic working relationships with forces beyond what we traditionally consider the DemLeft. So, let’s see how the confidence-building process evolves.)

Hontiveros added that their potential standard-bearer could be decided within the next nine months.

“There will certainly be a progressive or reformist alternative. So, there will be at least a third slate, at least a third candidate. I really don’t know yet who that will be, because that will be part of the selection process, which I’m hoping we can design after the first nine months of unifying our forces,” she said in a mix of English and Filipino.

Choosing a standard-bearer could be challenging for the opposition, especially as Kakampinks continue to hope that former Vice President Leni Robredo will run for president in 2028. However, Robredo, who recently won the Naga mayoral race, has said that she intends to stay in her hometown, saying it would be unfair to leave the Nagueños by 2028.

The opposition forces in the country are often criticized for being divided and fragmented, with various groups pursuing different agendas. They tend to revolve around multiple personalities rather than rallying behind a single candidate. The divided opposition weakens their chances of toppling the ruling party.

Political analyst Arjan Aguirre offered unsolicited advice to the opposition, urging them to move away from personality-driven politics and instead present long-term solutions to enduring national issues such as hunger and education. He also said that they should continue presenting themselves as an alternative choice for bickering politicians.

“Their move toward 2028 should be built on this route and not just on personality politics and mere short-term political maneuverings. The liberal-moderate left forces should strive to strengthen their alliance (real alignment of interests and goals with no need of formal agreements). They should also entertain the idea of forming coalitions (for this needs formal agreements and bargaining) with other progressive forces,” Aguirre said.

Aguirre’s advice carries weight, considering that the stunning victories of Aquino and Pangilinan can be attributed to their focus on gut issues like education and food security. Both stayed out of the already chaotic political feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps.

“The progressive opposition should strengthen their policy-seeking strategies to bolster their vote-maximizing capabilities. They should be more aggressive in offering innovative and radical solutions to longstanding political, social, and economic problems that we are facing nowadays,” Aguirre said.

‘Stronger’ opposition

The opposition could bank on the 2025 midterm turnout for their chances in 2028. Apart from Aquino and Pangilinan, Akbayan party-list — Hontiveros’ political party — also achieved a stunning victory, topping the party-list race and securing three seats for them. Former senator Leila de Lima’s Mamayang Liberal (ML) party-list also secured a seat in Congress. (READ: 2025 wins: Hontiveros declares stronger opposition in Congress)

With the looming impeachment trial of the Vice President initially set for July 30, the opposition lawmakers would play a crucial part in the process. Akbayan Representative-elect Chel Diokno and De Lima are set to be part of the House prosecution, while the three opposition-allied senators — Hontiveros, Aquino, and Pangilinan — will be judges.

Kakampink supporters are counting on the three senators to cast convicting votes against the Vice President. However, the senators have so far remained silent, saying they have yet to review the evidence.

Can the gains the opposition secured in the 2025 midterms carry through to 2028? That largely depends on where the political tide shifts. As recent developments have shown, nothing in politics is permanent– Rappler.com