The decline of the Chinese population hurts its property market

The Chinese real estate sector has deepened every year with a deep decline. A reduced population throws another shadow by the property market.

Goldman Sachs estimate that the demand for new houses in China cities will be deleted in less than 5 million units a year – a quarter of the summit of 20 million in 2017.

“Falling population and slowing urbanizations suggest reducing demographic demand for housing” In the coming years, Goldman Sachs economists said Monday.

The country’s population is believed to be less than 1,39 million 1.41 trillion, according to the latest banks of the World BankHe said Tianchen Xu, the main economist of the economist in the economist, referring to a combination of an old population with newborns and more deaths.

The reduction of population will reduce 0.5 million units every 200s every 2030s, annually, Goldman Sachs estimates that the positive contribution of 1.5 million units in the 2010 decades, when the population increased continuously.

The country fertility rate continued to fall Even though Beijing relaxed his children’s policy in 2016, and in despite efforts to turn on children’s income. Unstoppable entries, instability over work options and a poor Social Security system have been small babies to have more babies.

Beijing’s pronatalist politics will face “limited effect,” Xu said, Xu said, such as great economic costs of children and people to delay the marriage and delay a hug of individuality.

Decreases birth rates, nearly 36,000 nurseries closed in the last two years, with the number of preschool students who fall in more than 10 million preschoolers. This is according to CNBC official calculation The data released the Ministry of Education. Also, Number of items of items It has fallen almost 13,000 between 2022 and 2024.

That is in school-housing markets, repeatedly swollen prices that saw prices over the hard demand for better public schools.

The provisional premiums were fed up to schools and property values. But the chopped population and local governments scales back-based enrollment policies, the added value of these houses has begun to reduce the value of William Wu, China’s property analyst in Daiwa Capital markets.

The mother of a 7-year-old boy in Beijing told Cnbc to the price of his apartment that he fell about 20% when he bought two years ago. The average price of a city apartment cost approximately to go to his son’s basic school.

In 2023 the number of children who enter primary education was achieved over two decades, according to Wind information, before he fell in 2024, his son was enrolled.

Demographic change is an excess of the property market, 2020. He has made an effort to get out of a painful decline since the year. Although a raft Central government and local measures From September last year, the decline in real estate has decreased.

The most recent home prices were in May seven months.

New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 11% in the first half of this month, worsened from 3% fall in May.

“Holders of investment properties are more likely to be clean sellers (owners or occupiers) for the forefront of” highlights that will continue to fall at home, calculates Goldman Sachs.

While Goldman expects the rise of the Chinese urbanization rate, in order to hire city housing demand, the demographic drag in the property market was still not yet “immediate” and decades.

During this period, “some decline will compensate for continuous urbanization and demand for home renewal,” he said, because the last one would increase the share of the Chinese home.

– CNBC Evelyn Cheng helped this story.