How Trump could declare a national energy emergency

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to declare a national energy emergency as soon as he takes office on Monday, after promising voters he would cut electricity and gasoline prices in half in the first year of his administration.

“To achieve this rapid reduction in energy costs, I will declare a national emergency to dramatically increase energy production, generation and supply,” Trump. he told supporters at a rally in Potterville, Michigan, last August. “From day one, I will approve new drilling, new pipelines, new refineries, new power plants, new reactors and we will cut red tape.”

The president-elect repeated his intention as little as December 22″declaring a national energy emergency“on the first day of his administration. He vowed to issue a series of executive orders to reverse the Biden administration’s policies on natural gas exports, drilling and emissions standards.

Trump plans to implement one National Energy Council Led by North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, his choice to lead the Department of the Interior. Burgum said during a Senate hearing on his nomination this week that he hopes to establish the board through an executive order.

It’s unclear whether the emergency declaration will be largely symbolic or whether it will invoke broader powers that go beyond the energy executive orders Trump will issue on Monday. The president-elect’s transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

“My prediction is that it will be a rhetorical declaration of an energy emergency,” said Mike Sommers, president of the oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute. “When you put together the executive orders, that’s going to be the answer to what to do about the energy emergency.”

Trump could enact several energy-related emergency statutes, said Glenn Schwartz, director of energy policy at consulting firm Rapidan Energy. Emergencies are often loosely defined under federal law, giving the president broad discretion to use them as he sees fit, Schwartz said.

And Trump would likely face little pushback from the courts because they don’t challenge presidential decisions related to national security, Schwartz said.

“What you end up with is that even if Trump were to expand his emergency powers in unprecedented ways, it’s not clear that the courts are going to stop any of these actions,” the analyst said.

It is likely that emergency authorities

Trump has a clear precedent for invoking emergency powers to boost energy generation and expand the nation’s fuel supply, Schwartz told clients in a research report published last Thursday. Authorities using the powers would waive some energy-related environmental and pollution rules.

Trump could issue fuel exemptions under the Clean Air Act to keep gasoline on the market that would otherwise violate federal air quality standards, analysts said. Presidents have often used such waivers whenever they needed to stretch the country’s gasoline supply and keep prices under control, he said.

Trump could also call Federal Powers Act Mandating the plants to operate at maximum capacity and not meet pollution limits, Schwartz said. The Secretary of Energy may invoke the act in times of war or when a sudden increase in demand or a shortage of electricity creates a state of emergency.

The supply has been used infrequently since World War II and is mainly reserved for situations where severe weather has overwhelmed power plants, Schwartz said.

The largest US grid operator, PJM Interconnection, has warned that a lack of power as coal plants retire faster than new capacity can be brought online. PJM operates a network in all or part of 13 states in the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South.

The situation could worsen as demand for electricity increases dramatically as the tech sector builds power-hungry data centers to support artificial intelligence applications.

The first Trump administration considered calling for an act in 2018 to order utilities to buy two years of electricity from coal and nuclear plants that were at risk of closing. The administration at the time eventually scrapped the idea after pushback from the industry.

Trump can also choose broader statute it allows the president to waive pollution laws from industrial facilities, power plants, oil refineries, steel mills, chemical plants and other industrial facilities in emergency situations, Schwartz said.

Under federal law, there is less support for the president to force new production, Schwartz said. Trump can direct federal agencies to expedite environmental reviews of energy projects he supports, such as pipelines, but the president cannot use emergency powers to circumvent core environmental policies such as the National Environmental Policy Act and the Endangered Species Act, analysts said.

Expected executive orders

Oil industry lobbyists at the American Petroleum Institute predict Trump will issue a series of energy-related orders starting Monday.

The administration is expected to order the suspension of the Biden team lifted new exports of liquefied natural gas facility, Sommers said. The president-elect will try to reverse President Biden’s recent decision to ban drilling in 625 million acre-feet of federal waters. Trump’s authority to do so has been disputed and the order would likely end up in court.

“We believe he has the ability to turn that around and we will defend that in court,” Sommers said.

The industry expects the president will also direct the Interior Department to increase oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico, Sommers said. He was fired by the Biden administration lowest rent in history As part of a program that will last until 2029.

These decisions will not have an immediate effect on production. The US has been the world’s largest oil and gas producer for six years, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. general manager of Exxon and Chevron they’ve made it clear that production decisions are based on market conditions, not in response to what’s in the White House.

“You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them drink,” Schwartz said. “He can give them all the resources they need to be able to drill, but I haven’t seen anything that suggests he can force them out of the ground.”

Trump is expected to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement. Executive orders targeting emissions and fuel economy standards for cars are also expected.

However, only so much can be done by executive order, Sommers said, and directives often have to go through a time-consuming rulemaking process. The oil industry is more focused on pushing for more permanent policy changes in the Republican-controlled Congress, he said.

“There’s not a lot they’re going to be able to do on day one, direct federal agencies to deliver on the promise of energy dominance,” Sommers said.