College Football Playoff: Betting on the Player Prop Market for the Semifinals

With less than 48 hours until the college football semifinals begin, NBC Sports’ Eric Froton ( @CFFroton ) dived into the player prop market and laid out a handful of his best betting plays.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Jeremiah Love, RB, ND: Open – Under 58.5 Rushing Yards = NOW Under 42.5 at Caesars
We got an initial drop of 58.5 Rushing Yards for Love on Friday morning on the Underdog and Sleeper, which I immediately exited and placed my best bet on NBC’s Bet The Edge as the worst line in the semifinal round. Love went down in the second half against USC and gave up carries for the rest of the contest to Ja’Darian Price. ND said all the right things about Love’s health heading into R1 against Indiana, and he rewarded the Irish with an explosive 98-yard first quarter run against the Hoosiers. However, since that run, Love has collected just 29 yards on 13 carries, including his 6-carry, 19-yard performance against Georgia in the last round where he was noticeably compromised.

There’s no secret to what’s going on here. Love has been unable to finish his last three games with a knee injury that went from a regular sleeve to a full brace in practice this week in a quick one-week turnaround. Hopefully you watched Bet The Edge and profited from the absurd early lines, but I still think there’s value in current rushing yards under 42.5 yards at Caesar’s.

Love’s backup RB Jadarian Price just came off a 45.5/46.5 range, which he has picked off six times in 14 games against middling Purdue/Stanford/FSU/USC/Georgia Tech/Army defenses. He’s caught 10+ carries in each of his last four games, but still rushed for just 32 yards against Indiana and 37 yards against Georgia in the last round.

I think the speculative Over 70+ yards on Draft Kings at +350 is well worth the splurge in case Love is a serious threat.

Read more: Nicole Auerbach tells us Penn State’s work is just getting started

Mitchell Evans, TE, ND: Under 27.5 receiving yards | FanDuel (-115)
Mitchell Evans tore his ACL late last season but was able to return in time for the season opener against Texas A&M. While his usage has been consistent, Evans’ 6.4 ADOT ranks 66th out of 85 qualifying secret scores, while his lean 4.0 YAC ranks 75th. Some of that has to do with Notre Dame’s conservative approach with dual-threat QB Riley Leonard under center:

• Riley Leonard averaged just 10.6 yards per completion this season – T-5. lowest among Power Conference Quarterbacks.
• Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.7 yards per reception this season, 20th best among FBS defenses.

Evans opened with 30.5 yards receiving against the Fanatics, but has since dropped to 27.5. He cleared 27 receiving yards just twice all season — a five-catch, 59-yard showing against USC and a four-catch, 34-yard showing against Virginia, making him a skewed 12-2 against the 27.5-yard mark.

I like Mitchell’s overall talent level, but he just hasn’t been used in a way that leads me to believe he can clean up his pretty aggressive line against Penn State’s top pass defense.

Nicholas Singleton, RB, PSU: Over 58.5 Rush Yards at BetMGM
Singleton has cleared his 58.5-yard line at BetMGM in each of the last five games against credible defenses like Oregon, Minnesota, SMU and Boise State. Notre Dame’s run D showed vulnerability, ranking a troubling 129th in completion rate (14%) and 63rd in rushing success rate (42.6%) in the semifinal game.

As the games get tougher, Singleton’s ability to create explosive plays becomes more important to PSU’s offense, which also applies to the receiving game. Notre Dame’s linebackers are decent in coverage, but still allow a 60%+ completion rate:
Jack Kiser LB: 12 ​​of 19 for 133 with 5.8 ADOT and 11.1 YPC = 61.2 coverage grades
Drayk Bowen, LB: 8-of-13 for 119 yards with 7.4 ADOT and 15.0 YPC = 73.7 Cover Grade

Singleton has also been bombarded with targets as he has received 47 in 14 games, caught 39, while his receiving line currently sits at 3.5 receptions (+135) and 26.5/27.5 yards. The receptions will likely require a rushing game script to clean up, and he has topped the current rushing yardage streak just five times in 14 games against some of the more competitive B10 teams in Oregon, Ohio State, Wisconsin, USC and Minnesota. I’m releasing the receiving lines, but I wanted to address them.

Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Tre Wisner, RB, Texas: Over 16.5 receiving yards
Texas is on 22.1% pass attempts, 16th most in the FBS. Quintrevion Wisner was targeted 46 times in the regular season, second most among SEC running backs. Texas’ rushing attack has had some promising moments, but still ranks just 98th in yards before contact and 87th in yards per rush. I think we see Ewers target Wisner with extended handoffs and designed screens to counter OSU’s wild front seven.

With these factors in mind, I’m taking over 16.5 yards receiving on Wisner. I’m also concerned about Texas’ run game completely shutting down, which hampered its production against ASU (18 for 45 yards), Georgia (19 for 51) and Arkansas (17 for 59).

Will Howard, QB, Ohio State: Pass attempts under 31.5 | ESPNBet
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: Over 83.5 receiving yards | BetMGM (-115)
When Ohio State dictates the tempo of the game and controls the tempo, it’s important to remember their OC Chip Kelly’s natural preference to establish a credible running game and lean on his opponents when OSU has the advantage. The result was that Will Howard didn’t need the passing volume to win. Howard threw 31.5 passes just twice all year, against Michigan (33 passes) and Oregon’s opener (35).

Despite throwing for 311 and 319 yards in his first two playoff games, Howard needed just 26 and 29 passes to do so. I’m taking these pass attempts below 31.5 with the expectation that OSU will be able to hit the big plays in a similar fashion.

That’s why I also played Immortal Jeremiah Smith to go OVER 77.5 receiving yards in the Open. He’s still good at a current 83.5 yards receiving that he’s caught fire in four of the last six games. Smith will get a shot at the targets if they go down and will likely be a key part of their success if they win.

Enjoy the games. Come back to take a look at the betting angles for the Championship game at the end of the week.