Why Somalis are in love with Donald Trump

Many people in Somaliland are convinced that the United States, under the presidency of Donald Trump, is ready to become the first country in the world to recognize the self-declared republic.

The territory declared independence 33 years ago, after Somalia entered civil war, and in many ways has operated as a de facto nation-state ever since.

“Donald is our savior. He is a wise and practical man. God bless America,” says college student Aisha Ismail, her voice trembling with joy.

He is speaking to me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland, a city 850 km (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of the Somali government.

For Mogadishu, Somaliland is an inseparable part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, never mind where it is,” says Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in Mogadishu, whose voice begins to shake.

– I’m throwing fire.

He is so angry that Ms. Ismail’s high hopes are not necessarily a dream, at least in the long run.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same, including Congressman Scott Perry, who filed last month. Bill proposing formal US recognition for Somaliland.

It was then published in April 2023 2025 projectTrump’s second presidential road map compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and more than 100 other conservative organizations.

The document mentions only two African territories in the sub-Saharan African section—Somaliland and Djibouti—and proposes “recognition of Somaliland’s statehood as a hedge against the wrong position of the United States in Djibouti.”

However, the fact that sub-Saharan Africa occupies less than two pages in the over 900-page plan suggests that the continent is very low on the priority list.

There’s also no guarantee the incoming administration will follow through on the plan, some of which Trump has already rejected.

But one thing is clear. The US has already begun to change its position on Somaliland, moving away from its Mogadishu-centric approach, known as the “one-track” Somalia policy.

Somalia has cost the US dearly in financial, resource and human terms since the early 1990s, when the bodies of 18 US servicemen were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after US helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters.

The battle, known as “Black Hawk Down,” was the worst in terms of American casualties since the Vietnam War.

“Any move to recognize the independence of Somaliland would not only violate Somalia’s sovereignty, but would also destabilize the region by setting a dangerous precedent,” says Ali Omar Balcad, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Somali State.

The African Union and other world powers believe that territorial integrity is essential. Recognizing Somaliland could set off a chain reaction with separatists around the world demanding recognition of the territories they claim.

Balcade also raised concerns about a repeat of the Trump administration’s earlier decision to withdraw most American troops from Somalia, which had been fighting al-Shabab, regularly described as al-Qaeda’s most successful affiliate.

Under the presidency of Joe Biden, about 500 US troops have been in Somalia – conducting special operations and training the elite Somali force, Danab, which has been more effective than the regular Somali army in rooting out al-Shabab.

The Americans have an air base in Baledogl, northwest of Mogadishu, and regularly carry out airstrikes against Islamist rebels.

“Withdrawal would create a significant security gap, emboldening terrorist groups and threatening the stability of not only Somalia, but the wider Horn of Africa,” Balcade warned.

The minister’s statements are in the same vein, but more measured than Somalia’s response to the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia, where recognition would be given in exchange for access to the sea.

I received calls from Somalis who said they couldn’t sleep with the controversial proposal.

Then Aden Ibrahim Aw Hirsi, Somalia’s Environment Minister, told me at the time: “In your reports you are always talking about ‘political bombs’.

“People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is much more serious. It’s a tsunami.”

Turkey has since brokered an end to the fighting but the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000) a year deal with Washington’s leading lobbying firm BGR Group suggests it is concerned about future relations with the Trump administration.

US last month He abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution To finance the latest incarnation of the African Union intervention force in Somalia.

A key architect of African Republican thinking, especially on Somali issues, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the right-wing Hudson Institute.

“The Somaliland case is very compelling in US terms,” ​​he argued. “I think the question of recognition will definitely be debated, although the north star that guides it is what is best for the US national interest in practical terms.”

Top African officials under Trump, including former Under Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy and Africa envoy Peter Pham, are strong supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many American Republicans, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan sees the relationship in transactional terms.

“If the deal is good for us, we’ll take it. If the US wants a military base here, we’ll give it to them.”

Proponents of recognition argue that Somaliland is located at the site of several converging US interests: economic, military and strategic.

Mr Meservey added that the territory should be “rewarded” for adhering to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.

Its long coastline crosses one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have replaced Somali pirates as the main obstacle to traffic in the area, but attacks remain a major threat to global trade and bring the region closer to war in the Middle East.

Fighting for foreign bases on the coast of the Horn of Africa is a concern for the US, which established its largest military installation on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.

Russia has its eyes on Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) used Eritrea’s Assab to fight the Houthis and Djibouti is teeming with foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have well-placed military installations but also run a huge port.

Turkey’s largest base on foreign soil stretches along the Somali coast south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with a rising China is Trump’s top priority.

The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with their activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of air force pilots and is keen to move elsewhere.

He also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera, whether viewed as part of Somaliland or Somalia, offers much as an alternative.

China is not there; in fact, he is angry that Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the fugitive republic in 2020.

The UAE, a key US ally, runs the newly expanded port and hopes to rival Djibouti.

During the Biden administration, senior US officials, including the head of the US Africa Command (Africom), visited Berbera, which has a 4km airstrip ironically built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The US later identified it as an emergency landing site for the space shuttle – interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, increasing security cooperation and paving the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties.

Pro-recognition Republicans have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to woo Trump’s deal-making approach. Project 2025 used the term “coverage”.

A Somaliland diplomat living in the US said: “It depends on how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to seduce him.”

Whether he means it or not, raising the explosive issue of recognition will likely suit the disruptive Trump.

It would definitely bring him attention and he could be proud to be the first.

Somalia, the country he included on his 2018 list of “shitiest” nations and the place he wants to deport undocumented Somalis, asylum seekers and criminals, would also be outraged.

There is already talk in Somaliland that they will use that territory as a “dumping ground” for such people in exchange for US recognition.

US academic Ken Menkhaus, who has followed Somali affairs for decades, brings much-needed balance to the debate.

“It is very likely that we will see significant changes in US policy towards Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Mr Trump is deeply suspicious of foreign aid, skeptical of state-building and a neo-isolationist.”

The Horn of Africa must prepare for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You Have Told Me Is True, a look at the lifestyle of al-Shabab.