What if TikTok is banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19, unless approved by the Supreme Court last ditch legal offer its Chinese owner, ByteDance, that doing so would be unconstitutional.

But will the country’s highest judicial authority agree with the lower courts – and Congress – that the platform is a threat to national security that will stop Americans from using it?

Will there be a way around the ban, or can President-elect Donald Trump find a way to stop a law he says he opposes, even if the courts uphold it.

And what happens to TikTok, who will benefit from the uncertainty clouding its future?

The most likely way for the US to ban TikTok is to require app stores such as the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store to make it unavailable for download in that region.

US lawmakers have already told tech companies to be prepared to remove the app from their stores if the ban goes into effect.

This would mean that people would not be able to use any legitimate means of accessing TikTok, although those who have already gotten it would still have it on their phones.

Since the app will no longer be publicly available, new updates cannot be delivered to US users, which would make the app more buggy and eventually unusable.

Not to mention that many updates are released to fix app security holes, so TikTok could expose millions of devices to hackers if it stops receiving updates.

Of course, there are ways around this ban.

Many videos are already circulating on TikTok telling users how to use a VPN (virtual private network), a way to pretend you’re in a different region.

App stores can also be region-switched on most devices, so anyone can theoretically access apps from other countries – although that can cause other problems, not to mention violating terms of service.

Apps downloaded from the Internet can also be installed by modifying a device – which can violate copyright law – and carries its own risks. However, the government has planned for this as well, so it also proposes to ban “Internet hosting services” from giving people access to the application.

So, if the ban has taken this form, it looks like those who decide to use TikTok after it goes into effect will be able to do so, but it won’t be the experience they’re used to.

There are still other ways available in the way of the government; for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to completely block access to the app.

And even if people were to use a VPN, TikTok could theoretically look at a user’s device and identify if their mobile number starts with a +1 to tell if they’re US-based, and then present the app with a screen that says so. it is not available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government with its ban, but Reuters reports that it plans to do so.

TikTok’s own lawyer told the Supreme Court that he believes the app will “go dark” in the US unless it rules in his favor.

The complexity of the problem means that even the experts are not sure what will happen.

Milton L. Mueller, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology who introduced a bill in support of TikTok, said the lack of clarity over how far the United States can extend law enforcement authority means knowing what happens technically if a ban goes ahead. difficult to determine

But what was clear, he said, was the impact it would have on users and the internet itself.

“It would absolutely legitimize the fragmentation of the Internet across national or jurisdictional boundaries,” he said.

Trump has been clear that he does not want the law to go into effect, and has asked the Supreme Court to delay its implementation while he seeks a “political solution.”

But, if the judges accept it, Trump does not have the power to overturn the law, and it would take effect the day before he returns to office.

But he can tell the Justice Department not to comply.

The government would effectively be telling Apple and Google that they won’t be penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning the law would remain in place, but would essentially be redundant.

Of course, companies may feel uncomfortable about breaking the law, even if they say it’s okay, because it would require the president’s word that they won’t face punishment.

TikTok says it has 170 million users in the US, who spent an average of 51 minutes a day on the app in 2024.

Banning TikTok or making it less available creates a huge opportunity for its larger tech rivals, says Insider Intelligence analyst Jasmine Enberg.

“Meta-owned Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are the most natural fit for displaced users, creators and advertisers,” he says.

Facebook could also benefit, Enberg says, though as with all Meta platforms, controversial politics changes It may reduce the appeal that CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced.

Users bring in advertisers, so a ban could be a big financial boost for those platforms.

“The marketers we spoke to confirmed that they will divert their media dollars to Meta and Google if they can’t advertise on TikTok, which is the same behavior we saw in India when TikTok was banned in 2020,” Forrester said. Senior Analyst Kelsey Chickering.

Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would have been an obvious place for people to go after a ban, but the law says it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the company. This means that Lemon8 will likely face becoming unavailable in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made its name in live streams – a popular feature of TikTok. Twitch is particularly popular with gamers, although it continues to grow with other content.

Other Chinese platforms, such as Xiaohongshu – known to US users as RedNote – have seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

However, some suggest that no existing app can replace TikTok, particularly its TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to buy products directly from videos and is a big money maker for US creators.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there were no direct competitors who could easily switch people, and noted that his agency was signing new contracts with clients to build TikTok Store campaigns until December.

As of now, ByteDance has decided that a sale of its premium assets in the US is not on the table.

But could that change if that’s actually banned, and when a president who prides himself on the “art of the deal” returns to the White House?

Potential buyers continue to line up Bloomberg News reported Tuesday that the company was looking to sell to billionaire Elon Musk, however TikTok has described that as “pure fiction”.

Former Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have expressed interest in pre-buying.

Mr. McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he secured $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to bid for TikTok.

An even more left-field and considerably more serious owner is proposed.

MrBeast the biggest youtuber in the world now he has claimed that he is in the running to make a deal after the millionaire approached him.

Although it may seem like a joke, it has a significant financial incentive to save the app – MrBeast has more than 100 million followers on TikTok.