Gaza ceasefire: what can we expect?

Israel and Hamas are believed to be close to agreeing a deal to end the war in Gaza and release Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It would be the most dramatic advance in the 15-month war, which began in October 2023 when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel.

It is hoped that the ceasefire agreement will be an agreement to stop the ongoing war in Gaza.

In addition, the exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

When Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023, it took 251 hostages. It still holds 94 captives, although Israel believes only 60 are alive.

Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

This ceasefire is expected to happen in three phases after the agreement is announced.

Details are still being worked out. Until an agreement is concluded, it can be changed.

First stage

A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first phase 34 hostages – expected to be civilians – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Three hostages would be released immediately, and the rest of the exchange would take place over six weeks.

At that stage, Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the populated areas of Gaza.

The Palestinian official said detailed negotiations for the second and third phases would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

Second stage

In the second stage, the rest of the hostages – soldiers and reservists – would be released in exchange for some Palestinian prisoners.

Israel is believed to have agreed to the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, about 190 of whom are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of the killing would not be released in the occupied West Bank.

At that stage, Israel will allow displaced people currently in southern Gaza to return to the north.

Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been forced to flee their homes by the fighting.

Third stage

The third and final stage would involve rebuilding Gaza, something that would take years.

The Israeli official said Israeli forces would remain in a security zone inside Gaza throughout the ceasefire.

Getting to this point has taken months of painstaking indirect negotiations, not least because Israel and Hamas are utterly distrustful of each other.

Hamas wanted a complete end to the war before the hostages were released, something that was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will suspend the war as long as its terms are met.

However, it is not clear whether this means that the war is over for good.

One of the main goals of Israel’s war has been to destroy Hamas’s military power and governance capabilities. Although Israel has been severely damaged, Hamas still has a capacity to function and rebuild.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead, or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of any it does not.

For its part, Hamas has asked for the release of some prisoners that it says Israel will not release. It is believed to include those who participated in the October 7 attacks.

It is not known whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date, or whether it will remain there indefinitely.

Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.

The cease-fires between Israel and Hamas, which have interrupted previous wars, have been shaken by clashes and finally broken.

The timing and complexity of this ceasefire means that even a small incident can turn into a major threat.

Hundreds of men led by Hamas launched an unprecedented attack in southern Israel, bursting through the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and army bases.

About 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were taken to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets into Israel.

Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first by air and then by a ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets in Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked them with rockets.

Israel’s offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages as aid struggles to reach the poorest. Israel’s attacks have killed more than 46,600 people – mostly civilians – according to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry.