Why Nvidia’s fate can be seen in China byd to Tesla

NvidiaThe final earned again highlighted its extraordinary success and undeniable market power: 46.7 billion dollars in incomeA year earlier up to 56 percent and $ 26.4 million net income. The announcement made in the next quarter has been $ 54 billion, in accordance with expectations. But an omission was highlighted – No Specific China H20 Chip Income. That the lack has no volume. The most valuable company of American semiconductors is struggling to keep walking in China among China champions, Cambricon Technologies, Surging.

The problem of NVIDI is not the basics of his business, and it is certainly not with its performance of chips, because Replacements “Backdoor”. Despite the heavy losses, despite the US export restrictions, the company grows and now Racing is our new Blackwell Ultra platform for us and allied data centers. Certainly, AI can bring global formation without taking luggage that comes with China. Instead of drawing confidence in this force, NVIDIA has retroverted the bending back to calm down the Chinese party situation, trying to maintain a chopped slice of Chinese market.

Report now suggests that the company is “B30A” develop a new chip – It is stronger than H20, but in fact, to play the border of our export limitations skirt. This sends the wrong signal. Instead of focusing on the future outside China, NVIDIA, repeated warnings and Chinese industrial policy route for techno-indigenization, simply can not give his dream of Chinese.

Remember what he did to Teslara

Now everything is very popular is that Beijing has been tested and true player. Foreign companies tolerate until the local champions are ready until they are gradually relocated. Already, Chinese regulators press companies such as Alibaba, Deepsee, and Bytance, why they continue to search for Nvidia products instead of Chinese China China China instead of using home chips. The purchase of foreign hardware openly becoming a political responsibility.

Enter Cambricon Technologies, and many believe that they have the alternative to Chinese Nvidia. In two years, his shares multiplied approximately ten times, making the company’s market darling and beijing for technological self-confidence. Investors are not only coming out of profits – they are still betting again on this political playbook. This year Cambricon’s Swing only amplified by the 690 processor in Siyuan. It’s still developing. Analysts close as much as possible in Nvidia H100’s performance and is likely to be limited by H20 Chips temporarily located in China.

Excitement around Cambricon has nothing to do with technical reference than a narrative about nationalist pride and home time. Chinese developers for example Deepseees are already signposting The latest models will be optimized to be released in household chips. ” This creates an ecosystem, as Cambricon is not tolerated but embraced, which uses his products to amplify the story of national progress. And the Cambricon has been on the list of companies in the US trading department, in all the tips of his stock price and technological parity as a challenge in China – This year the Deepseee was held in the same way as soon as possible.

The strengths that weaken the position of Nvidia in China are those who push the rise in Cambricon, and the latest list of the latest lists of the U.S. business in the Chinese market is remarkable. Think What did he do to Teslara, Huawei appleor Deepseek to go to a child.

US officials keep “the best things” outside China, growing a stronger nationalist case in some Kambricon and local champions. For Nvidia, the risk is real. Retaining Chinese dream, Kowtowing Kowtowing does not guarantee the open market. It only strengthens the playbook and highlights the contrast between a foreign supplier and a local company with a foreign company as a body of resilience and resilience.

That point stressed at the last profit call of NVIDI. The managers accepted that there was no H20 sales to China in Q2, and that they do not have “geopolitical issues”.

Nvidia’s CFO do not write these issues, but the signal is noticeable: China’s political rejection is not necessarily technical. Xi Jinping has already set the course. In the April policy analysis session, he clearly left the AI ​​hardware and the indigenization of software that is a national priority. The Chinese developers may want “best chips”, aspects and security devices will decide what they can buy – and will fill the private sector.

Trump Commerce SEC Howard Lutnick didn’t help

Nvidia policy in general memory that can guide the decision of Beijing market, should meet the role of Washington to speed up this result. Secretary of Commerce HOWARD Lutnick’s July Notes The US Strategy Selling China “is not the best thing, not selling the best things, is not the third best … It’s enough (China) in the worst possible time. What he became in his bad words, became a nationalist market to the nationalist market. Safety agencies, bureaucrats and smis, such as Huawei and Sristia, was caught in Nvidia that trust is not safe and humiliating. Instead of buying H20s under the radar, Chinese companies face political pressure to completely exclude and buy the locals.

This convergence of the market, political and international approval is not an accident. The AI ​​Plus initiative in China aims to integrate almost in all sectors, 2030. Until the year. Plans Adoption references includes adoption references to home chip, broadband memory and computer state clusters. Cambricon has become a spectacular evidence that China should show, which can build an independent ecosystem in our technology.

For investors, it is fair to say that Nvidia will have the standard golden power of the future, but in China, perfection and performance references do not matter. What is most concerned with political establishment and security, the private sector is anchor to the dependence of foreign suppliers and techno-indigenization projects. If the Nvidia Blackwell Ultra opponent will never be able to carry out the development of Chinese AI – and is enough for the party needs.

This causes Nvidia’s effort to establish Beijing and Washington’s status, serving a huge chip and not satisfy the master.

–By Dewardric McNealManagement of the General Manager of Longview Global and CNBC collaborator and policy analysts