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READ: Part 1 | Senator Rodante Marcoleta, the gentleman from Iglesia
Was it Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) or Rodrigo Duterte that helped Rodante Marcoleta finish sixth in the Senate race?
Data analyzed by Rappler and The Nerve, a data forensics company, coupled with interviews with campaign insiders, indicate that Marcoleta’s victory can be attributed to both the INC and Duterte factors. The Duterte vote, however, was more decisive compared to the INC’s endorsement.
Our research showed that on the ground, many local politicians endorsed the 72-year-old Marcoleta in hopes that the church would also endorse them in return.
Parallel to the ground efforts of campaign teams, The Nerve’s analysis showed that on social media, Marcoleta rode the Duterte wave and eventually went viral, thanks to Duterte-related content.
A study of the election results, as analyzed by Rappler, showed that Marcoleta performed best in Mindanao, a stronghold of the Duterte family.
In a sign that this went beyond the INC bloc vote, Marcoleta even ranked sixth in the Holy See, a voting precinct of 169 voters, where many are priests and nuns working in Vatican City.
The turnout was surprising given that Marcoleta, months before the May 12 elections, complained that he felt invisible to mainstream media.
Media, he said, refused to give him space or airtime, even if he spoke for an hour during the INC’s National Rally for Peace on January 13.
“The Philippine Daily Inquirer, its slogan is ‘Balanced news, fearless views.’ What the hell, I was not there. I was not even mentioned. It was as if I did not exist. There were three reporters who wrote that report,” Marcoleta said in a panel interview on the television channel One News.
He then turned to one of the three interviewers, Ana Marie Pamintuan, editor in chief of the Philippine Star.
“With all due respect, Ma’am,” said Marcoleta, “Philippine Star, what is its slogan? ‘Truth shall prevail.’ And there were eight reporters who reported that particular incident — eight. So eight plus three, 11 reporters, nobody saw me in the rally. Nobody heard me. Why?”
“It was as if I did not exist,” said Marcoleta, a party-list representative for around two decades.
But if Marcoleta felt invisible to mainstream media, he — and the INC — certainly made his presence felt on the ground.
Marcoleta’s campaign proved most potent in Duterte’s bailiwick.
Data showed that Marcoleta’s strongest support came not from areas with significant INC populations — traditionally seen as influential voting blocs — but from Mindanao, particularly in provinces with large numbers of Duterte supporters.
The top 10 provinces where Marcoleta secured the highest vote percentage can also be found in Mindanao, a Duterte bailiwick.
In Davao del Sur, he placed 3rd and secured 65.75% of the vote. In Sulu, he garnered 56.99%. Across several other Mindanao provinces, Marcoleta consistently ranked top three or four, in areas with a lower-than-average INC presence.
Nationwide, as of 2020, INC accounts for about 2.8 million Filipinos, or roughly 3% of the total population. The Philippines remains predominantly Roman Catholic, with 85.6 million members (79%), followed by the Muslim population at 6.98 million (6%).
On the other hand, Marcoleta registered his worst performance in Camarines Sur, bailiwick of former vice president Leni Robredo. This, despite rumors — debunked by fact checkers and the Robredo camp — that she had endorsed Marcoleta for senator.
He also fared poorly in other provinces in the Bicol region, a Robredo stronghold.
The Duterte factor was evident in Marcoleta’s miting de avance on May 6, with Rodrigo Duterte’s youngest daughter Kitty, his partner Honeylet Avanceña, and key ally Robin Padilla taking turns to endorse Marcoleta in Duterte’s name.
Padilla made a specific appeal to his fellow Muslims, most of whom live in Mindanao, to “pay our debt of gratitude” to INC by voting for Marcoleta. He said that the INC, through its Lingap sa Mamamayan charity events, has never “forgotten” Filipino Muslims in times of war and disaster.
Padilla even said that Duterte requested him, at The Hague, to tell the Filipino people to “vote Dante Marcoleta first of all.”
Pulse Asia president Ronnie Holmes confirmed to Rappler that “the Duterte vote, especially in Central Visayas and Mindanao, pulled up the numbers of Marcoleta.”
Holmes even noted that in their pre-election surveys, Marcoleta’s preference rating went up in March 2025. That was around the same time when Duterte was arrested on March 11 in a crimes against humanity case at the International Criminal Court.
He said a number of pro-Duterte candidates also rose in survey rankings at that time, “arguably due to sympathy for the Dutertes given the arrest of Digong.”
“The 2025 election results are best understood if one recognizes the distinct context — the intense conflict between Marcos and the Dutertes, low approval and trust of Marcos, and his administration’s performance that pulled down support for Alyansa (Marcos-allied) candidates,” he explained.
Online, Marcoleta’s campaign can shed more light on the reasons he won.
Based on The Nerve’s analysis, Marcoleta’s Facebook campaign was driven by Duterte allies and individual supporters who shared his speeches and endorsements, as well as relevant news articles.
His Facebook campaign “was predominantly led by Duterte supporters advocating for the PDP-Laban line-up,” referring to the Duterte patriarch’s political party. He was also frequently mentioned in relation to PDP-Laban campaign rallies.
Marcoleta was most frequently mentioned in “vote for PDP-Laban line-up” posts, registering 16% of total mentions. But Marcoleta’s supporters also actively campaigned for him as an individual senator. Posts on Marcoleta’s campaign trail and those that state “vote for Marcoleta” registered 6.7% of total mentions.
Other supporters’ posts tackled his speech at the INC’s peace rally, the supporters’ reactions to this speech, and the reasons why they will vote for Marcoleta.
On YouTube, over 1,000 posts mentioned Marcoleta in the title or description, according to The Nerve.
Around 32% of these videos were related to his attendance at political rallies. Around 9.4% were connected to pro-Duterte news and political commentary, while 8.3% were related to pro-Marcos news.
Even on social media, Marcoleta’s campaign bore Duterte’s footprint.
Where, then, does one place the INC?
When we looked at provinces with the highest concentration of INC members (measured as a percentage of the population), Marcoleta often underperformed. (See the chart below.)
Tarlac is a prime example, since it is a province where INC members make up 7.5% of the population, higher than the 3% nationwide. It is also the hometown of Marcoleta, who was born in Paniqui, Tarlac, on July 29, 1953.
Despite being a native of Tarlac, Marcoleta ranked only 9th, outside the top 6 he achieved nationally.
In Aurora (6.31% INC), he ranked 16th, while in Nueva Ecija (6.27% INC), he placed 15th. Meanwhile, in Quirino (5.8% INC), he placed 17th.
The INC factor gave Marcoleta “a bit of an edge over other pro-Duterte candidates who failed to make it, like Ipe Salvador or Jimmy Bondoc,” said Holmes. “However, I would not say it is that significant to make him win relative to the geographic votes.”
It is useful to note that the statistic of “2.8 million INC members,” often used to depict the power of their bloc vote, includes non-voters, including children. In 2025, only around 60% of Filipinos were registered voters, and among the registered voters, only 82% trooped to polling precincts.
If one factors in the INC members who do not vote for the church’s anointed ones (around 20-25% of them did not heed the INC’s advice, based on previous Social Weather Stations exit polls), then the “2.8 million” figure gets diluted all the more.
But how come INC-endorsed candidates have historically had a high success rate of winning? In past elections, only one or two INC-backed senatorial candidates typically lost, suggesting that the INC endorsement works.
Well, there’s a catch: timing.
The INC often releases its endorsement list just days before elections, when candidates are already more visibly performing well in pre-election surveys and comfortably within the “Magic 12.” This raises questions about whether the bloc vote drives momentum or simply rides the wave.
A study by Allan Cairo Reyes, published in the Philippine Social Sciences Review, concluded that INC endorsements tend to be based on popularity. The study analyzed the INC vote share using 2004 and 2010 exit poll data for senators.
“INC leadership weighs candidates seeking its endorsement only on the basis of popularity and nothing more,” Reyes wrote.
And even among INC members, compliance isn’t absolute. In a 2022 Inquirer column, SWS president Mahar Mangahas noted that 75% to 80% of INC members follow the church’s senatorial endorsements.
While “it’s not perfect compliance,” Mangahas said that the endorsement is crucial for the last one or two slots in the senatorial race.
In Marcoleta’s case, even if it was not the INC bloc vote that brought him to the Senate, a point of pride is not lost on fellow church members.
Marcoleta, as members cheered on Facebook, is the first INC senator.
It’s part of a decades-long pattern of INC influencing election results, according to a campaign veteran who spoke to Rappler.
“If this trend continues, INC will get to control the entire Philippines,” he said, adding that in an ideal world, a church should not have this much influence on politics. “Our problem is that society should be strong enough to withstand these things.”
Another informant said it is commonplace for candidates to make a beeline for the INC headquarters in Quezon City. Each candidate would meet with the INC leadership — executive minister Eduardo V. Manalo, political affairs chief Eraño Codera, or a lower-level leader, depending on the politician’s importance — typically without anyone escorting the politician.
Questions can revolve around one’s winnability or one’s program of government, although in the end, only the INC leaders would know the criteria by which they would assess a candidate.
It is much like a thesis defense, our source said.
“It’s something that we definitely wish would not be there, because at the end of the day, we want voters to vote not because of the orders of their church or bloc, but because of their own decision or discernment,” the informant said. Still, politicians engage the INC because “if the objective is to win, it is something that will help you win.”
What’s more concerning, however, is that the trade-offs go beyond election day.
This brings us back to 2016, when Marcoleta bolted the minority bloc to join the Duterte supermajority at the House of Representatives. Explaining the move, the late Albay 1st District Representative Edcel Lagman told Rappler: “He texted a message. He said his church wanted him to join the majority.”
Marcoleta himself told broadcaster and fellow INC member Anthony Taberna, in an interview years later, that following his church remains a priority. The lawmaker said, in the context of getting the INC’s permission to run for senator: “We will not make any move in our lives without seeking the necessary permission from them.”
Will the Honorable Marcoleta, the gentleman from Iglesia, be his own man? – with data analysis by Keith Yadao/Rappler.com