Contextualizing Marcos’ claims in his fourth SONA

MANILA, Philippines – Even after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. opened his fourth State of the Nation Address (SONA) with a disclaimer on the favorable data he presented, his speech was still littered with claims lacking context.

“Ngunit ang lahat ng ito (datos) ay palamuti lamang, walang saysay, kung ang ating kababayan naman ay hirap pa rin at nabibigatan sa kanilang buhay,” he said, right after talking about how his administration was supposedly able to improve the economy, lower inflation, and increase jobs.

(But all of this data is just decoration, with no meaning, if our countrymen still struggle and are burdened in their day-to-day lives.)

On paper, many of his claims about increases, improvements, and seemingly favorable statistics match with data found in official reports. But looking at the bigger picture reveals that his reported list of achievements paints a rosier picture than the realities the country faces today. 

Here are the numbers Marcos used to boast about his accomplishments during the SONA, and the context that shows they are not as grand as he made them out to be.

P20 per kilo of rice

Napatunayan na natin na kaya na natin ang P20 sa bawat kilo ng bigas nang hindi malulugi ang ating mga magsasaka.

(We have already proven that we can achieve P20 per kilo of rice without our farmers losing money.)

What Marcos failed to mention in his SONA is that the P20 per kilo of rice is available only in select Kadiwa stores nationwide and is limited to select vulnerable groups, which means it is not accessible to all Filipinos. 

Rappler resident economist JC Punongbayan, in his April 2025 episode of Ekonomi-yuh, explained why the P20 per kilo of rice is impossible to achieve. 

“Ang rule of thumb kasi, iyong retail price ng bigas ay doble ng farmgate price. Para mapababa natin iyong bigas ng P20, kailangan umabot ng P10 kada kilo ang farmgate price, na ngayon ay imposible, unless taasan natin ang rice productivity ng rice agriculture dito sa Pilipinas,“ Punongbayan explained.

(The rule of thumb is that the retail price of rice is double the farmgate price. To bring down the price of rice to P20, the farmgate price needs to reach P10 per kilo, which is currently impossible, unless we increase the rice productivity of rice agriculture here in the Philippines.)

Based on the weekly price monitoring of the Department of Agriculture for July 21 to 26 — the week of Marcos’ SONA — prices of local commercial rice ranged from P38.68 to P57.70. 

Crop production

Pinataas natin ang produksiyon ng palay, mais, pinya, saging, mangga, kape, cacao, calamansi, tubo, sibuyas, bawang, at iba pang mga agricultural products.

(We increased the production of palay, corn, pineapple, banana, mango, coffee, cacao, calamansi, sugarcane, onion, garlic, and other agricultural products.)

While the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) did report an increase in overall crop production in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, Marcos did not mention that this increase was logged at 1%.

The production growth rates of the specific crops he mentioned mostly had increases below 10%, with some even below 1%. Meanwhile, major crops like corn, mango, and calamansi actually had a decrease in production. 

• Palay – 0.3%
• Corn – -5.1%
• Banana – 0.7%
• Mango – -7.5%
• Coffee – 10.7%
• Cacao – 23.6%
• Calamansi – -0.8%
• Sugarcane – 19%
• Onion – 1.3%
• Garlic – not in the PSA report

Marcos also failed to mention that this year’s increase came after three quarters of decline in 2024, which was also an eight-year low for the Philippines.

Additionally, the President left out the fact that the first quarter of 2025, which encompasses the months from January to March, was marked by favorable weather. Data on the second quarter of 2025, when the habagat season and several storms started rolling in, had yet to be released by the time Marcos delivered his SONA.

Classroom shortage

Sa nakaraang tatlong taon, halos 22,000 silid-aralan ang nabuksan na. Hihigitan pa natin ito, dahil talagang nakakaawa ang ating mga mag-aaral. Hindi na natin dapat nabibitin ang oras nila sa klase dahil sa kakulangan ng classroom. Katuwang ng pribadong sektor, sisikapin nating madagdagan pa ng 40,000 silid-aralan bago matapos itong administrasyon.

(In the past three years, almost 22,000 classrooms have been opened. We will exceed this, because our students are truly pitiful. We should no longer cut short their class hours due to lack of classrooms. With the help of the private sector, we will strive to add 40,000 more classrooms before the end of this administration.)

Based on the Year Two Report of the Second Congressional Commission on Education (EDCOM 2), the country lacks 165,443 classrooms. This means the 22,000 classrooms built in the last three years of the Marcos administration equated to only 13.3% of the actual shortage. 

Classroom construction has been slow, according to the EDCOM 2 report. The report cited bottlenecks due to underutilization of the Basic Education Facilities Fund (BEFF), brought about by delays in planning and procurement, design modifications, failed biddings, and contract cancellation.

EDCOM 2 also projected that it will take over 20 years to resolve the classroom shortage in the country if the BEFF continues to operate with the average annual budget of P24 billion. 

TVET employability

Napatunayan na nating mabisa ang tech-voc, kaya unti-unti nang pinapasok sa senior high ang TVET ng TESDA…. Diretso pagka-graduate, p’wede na agad maghanap-buhay kung gugustuhin, dahil para na rin siyang nakapag-aral sa TESDA at nakakuha ng NC II o NC III.

(We have proven that tech-voc is effective, so TESDA’s TVET is gradually being integrated into senior high…. Immediately after graduation, they can look for work if they wish, because it’s as if they had already studied at TESDA and obtained an NC II or NC III.) NC refers to the national certificates issued by the Technical Education Skills and Development Authority to reflect competency levels.

While the Year Two Report of the EDCOM 2 recommends the integration of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) to provide better employment opportunities to senior high school graduates, the same report also found that TVET graduates recorded a high underemployment rate. 

It found that only about one-third of TVET graduates got their expected occupation based on the skills they acquired during their training. In the Year One Report of EDCOM 2, it was found that 64% of programs are lower-skill, pertaining to NC I and NC II certifications, which have shown minimal impact on increasing graduates’ incomes. 

Free college education

Taon-taon, mahigit 2 milyong estudyante ang nakakapag-aral ng libreng kolehiyo sa bansa. Mula umpisa ng administrasyong ito, dinagdagan pa natin ng 260,000 estudyante ang nakinabang dito.

(Every year, more than 2 million students are able to go to college for free in the country. From the start of this administration, 260,000 more students were able to benefit from this program.)

Data in the Year Two Report of EDCOM 2 does corroborate an increase in students accepted and enrolled in state and local universities and colleges, thus benefiting from free tuition. However, the same report warns that the current scheme remains “fiscally unsustainable,” especially given the growing college-age population.

Marcos also failed to mention that the dropout rate remains high, as pointed out by the same EDCOM report. The staggering 39% of Filipino college students dropping out shows that Philippine higher education still lacks equity in completion.

EDCOM 2 Executive Director Karol Yee explained in a Rappler Talk interview that students often prefer to work instead of study, given that the daily costs of attending school remain a burden.

“Ang pinaka-problem talaga diyan is opportunity cost. Kung ang bata, may tuition ka nga, pero mas malaki ang kikitain kung nagtrabaho na siya. Marami sa kanila, nagtatrabaho,” he added

(The real problem there is opportunity cost. Even if the student has free tuition, they could earn more if they start working. A lot of them are working.)

Drug campaign

Sa mga isinagawang pagsakote sa mga bodega’t laboratoryo, at tangkang pagpasok, halos P83 billion halaga ng droga ang nakumpiska na…. Sa lahat ng mga operasyon na ito, mahigit 153,000 ang naaresto…. Sa tatlong taon lamang, halos mapapantayan na ang kabuuang huli noong nakaraang administrasyon.

(During operations in bodegas and laboratories, and attempted entry, nearly P83 billion worth of drugs were confiscated…. In all these operations, more than 153,000 were arrested…. In just three years, we have nearly matched the total arrests/seizures of the previous administration.)

The figures Marcos mentioned in his SONA match the ones listed in a press release from the Presidential Communications Office.

However, his vague language makes his claim of matching the previous Duterte administration’s drug achievements unclear.

The same press release said Duterte was able to seize P91.06 billion worth of drugs by the end of his term, while Marcos has seized P82.58 billion. While Marcos’ seizures are still short of P8.48 billion, they do support his claim of catching up with the former administration’s achievements in less time.

However, in terms of arrests, Marcos’ administration has arrested 151,867 drug personalities so far, which is less than half of Duterte’s 345,216, the official number recorded a month before he ended his term. 

Duterte’s drug war also killed 6,252 people in police anti-drug operations according to government data. Human rights groups estimate this number to reach between 27,000 and 30,000, if victims of vigilante-style killings are included. 

Marcos’ own anti-drug efforts, which he falsely claimed were “bloodless” in the 2024 SONA, have resulted in 1,022 drug-related killings as of July 23, according to the Dahas Project.

Business confidence

Tumaas ang kumpiyansa ng mga negosyante.

(The confidence of businessmen has also increased.)

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) report on their business expectations survey contradicts Marcos’ claim. The current-quarter business confidence index for both the first and second quarters of 2025 were lower than those in 2024.

The indices are on the decline, coming from 44.5% at the end of 2024 to 31.2% at the start of 2025 and further down to 28.8% in the second quarter. These were attributed to the following concerns raised by the respondents of the BSP’s survey:

• potential impact of US reciprocal tariffs and rising global trade uncertainty
• expected slowdown in business activity after the May midterm elections
• sugar off-milling season

Both the next-quarter confidence and overall business outlook for the next 12 months were also less optimistic, according to the BSP’s report. 

Health care

At nasisiyahan ako na makapag-report na, sa kauna-unahang pagkakataon, ang bawat bayan po sa Pilipinas ngayon ay may doktor. Meron nang tagapag-alaga ng kalusugan ng mamamayan sa inyong lugar.

(And I am pleased to report that, for the very first time, every town in the Philippines now has a doctor. There is now someone to look after the health of the people in your communities.)

While Marcos’ claim cannot currently be verified with publicly accessible data, he did not mention that the Philippines’ doctor-patient ratio is still not at the ideal standard. 

An Ateneo de Manila University study published in April 2025 found that the Philippines’ physician-to-population ratio still stands at 7.92 per 10,000 people, falling short of the international minimum standard of 10 per 10,000.

It must also be clarified that the program that worked toward achieving this was first established in 1993, or long before Marcos became president. The Doctors to the Barrios program, led by then-health secretary Juan Flavier, deployed young physicians to underserved areas in the country.

The same study also warned that the country faces a shortage of at least 127,000 nurses, owing to the “brain drain” phenomenon caused by healthcare workers seeking better pay and working conditions abroad. Marcos failed to mention the plight of Filipino nurses in his SONA. – Rappler.com