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The college football season ends Monday night with Ohio State and Notre Dame playing for the national championship. Talent will be on display at virtually every position.
Who will excel on the national stage? Who will disappoint? Most importantly, which betting markets are the most vulnerable?
This is the definitive guide to betting on the player prop market courtesy of NBC Sports college pundit Eric Froton ( @CFFroton ).
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State: Over 4.5 receptions
I was lucky enough to attend the Ohio State game @ Notre Dame last year with mine Bet The Edge co-host Brad Thomas, and while the OC and QB were different, Emeka Egbuka was OSU’s leading weapon with 7 receptions for 95 yards in a 17-14 slugfest. While Texas played zone coverage that contained the impact of Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, Notre Dame played man-to-man more than any other team in the country (63.7%) which Ryan Day used to drag Egbuka across the field through traffic and gets the ball in his hands in space. I think he has another productive outing.
Jeremiah Love, RB, Notre Dame: Over 8.5 first quarter yards | FanDuel (-120) | .75 units
Notre Dame is at its best when it consistently runs the ball on early downs and counters with an efficient passing game that completes 66.7% of their throws as a team. With the Irish trailing 10-3 heading into halftime, they continued to rely heavily on the ground game in the third quarter, turning the ball over on 7 of their first 8 plays coming out of halftime. ND’s ability to win inside helped create a 1-on-1 matchup that led to a 54-yard touchdown run to Jaden Greathouse.
Love leads all players with P4 skills with 9.3 all-purpose yards per first down and leads the FBS with 7.1 yards per first half. I don’t think Notre Dame is waiting until the second half to attack Ohio State on the ground like they did last game, which means I think Love gets 4-5 first quarters that should put him in prime position to improve on a very tasty 8.5 rushing yards total in the first quarter.
Beaux Collins, WR, Notre Dame: Under 1.5 Receptions
Collins ran just 3 times last game against Penn State after suffering a calf injury in the 2nd round against Georgia. Even when healthy, Collins has only managed 2+ receptions in 2 of his last 7 games, serving as a high-risk, high-reward deep punt specialist. Further complicating matters is Collins’ woeful 16% drop rate, which ranks 4th among all Power Conference receivers this season. With all the offseason to heal, it’s reasonable to expect Collins to give it his best in college to try and at least show up, which would be a dream scenario for the purposes of this bet since he’s unlikely to catch many passes even without the pervasive issues with injuries. This line is still on Bovada and is my best bet.
Riley Leonard, QB, Notre Dame: Under 37.5 Rushing Yards
I’m confident Ohio State is treating Leonard similar to how they targeted Nico Iamaleava in the 1st round of the CFP Playoffs – spy him every play and dare Notre Dame to either put the ball in the air or hit them with love /Price/Williams the triumvirate. If ND goes down and is forced to broadcast in a behind-the-back scenario for the first time all year, then OSU’s ferocious pass rush that ranks No. 1 nationally at a 10.4% drop rate will be unleashed which is sure to result negative yardage for Leonard. Throw in the ever-unfortunate possibility of injury, which was a factor against Penn State with backup QB Steven Angeli shutting down the first half, and I’m skeptical that Leonard is able to clean up his 37.5 rushing yardage total.
Enjoy the game. Good luck with all your bets.
Follow Eric Froton (@CFFroton) throughout the game for betting opportunities.
