2025 College Football Playoff: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State – Odds, Best Bets, Trends & Stats

Ohio State (11-2) may have suffered a third straight loss to archrival Michigan to close out the regular season, but they didn’t let that disappointment cloud their overall goal of winning the CFP National Championship.

In the first round of the CFP Playoffs, OSU blanked Tennessee’s offense (14-of-31, 104 yards, 0-for-0) as the Vols couldn’t rally from an early 21-0 first quarter deficit en route to a victory in the first round with a score of 42-17. Against Oregon, DC Jim Knowles held them to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries, while OSU broke the game open with 5 straight explosive 30+ yard touchdowns before the Ducks even scored a point.

In the last round, Texas managed just 58 yards and 2.0 yards per carry on the ground, with the Buckeyes forcing the SEC’s most complete offense to play one-dimensional football. Ohio State DC Jim Knowles picks the weakest offensive link of every team they play, and he completely takes it away.

OSU’s devastating offense ranks in the Top 10 on each side of the ball in completion rate, EPA/game and marginal efficiency. The main areas of weakness on offense are Ohio State’s O-line’s ability to handle extra rushes, ranking 78th with a 9.2% pass breakup rate and a slightly increased 10.2% run blocking rate that checks in at 94th in the country.

OSU’s defense is elite, ranking first overall in the FBS by SP+. Their secondary faces the fifth fewest deep passes in the country, completing just 9.3% of its passes 20+ yards downfield. OSU’s elite defensive line ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sensational 9.8%% linebacker rate, forcing teams to rely on quick, structured throws. The Buckeyes are allowing a somewhat increased completion rate of 60.1% (63rd), but they’re still 3rd in total EPA/dropback, so the snaps and screens haven’t hurt them.
Notre Dame (12-1) didn’t let a disappointing Week 2 loss to 7-5 MAC program Northern Illinois derail their season, and ND rattled off 10 straight games to punch its ticket to the CFP playoffs. Their schedule at No. 63 included wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and USC. To their credit, all of Notre Dame’s regular season wins were by 10+ points, except for a 31-24 win over Louisville where the Irish had a 79% win expectation.

ND had the honor of hosting the first College Football Playoff game held on a college campus when they welcomed in-state rival Indiana in the first round. They quickly jumped out to a comfortable 27-3 lead before IU scored two late touchdowns with less than 1:30 left in the game to make it a somewhat deceptive 27-17 final. The Irish defense made two key mistakes while holding UGA to a 13.3% third/fourth down conversion rate in their 23-10 Round 2 win. CB Christian Gray made a game-changing interception late in the fourth quarter to put the Irish in position for Mitch Jeter’s 27-24 game-tying field goal.

Although ND lost two NFL-caliber tackles from last year’s offensive line, they didn’t lose a step in the running game ranking second in EPA/rush while averaging 6.5 yards per carry with no sacks and a sensational 3, 97 YAC leading the nation. Their high school is affirmatively elite, ranking #1 nationally in pass success rate (29.7%), EPA/return rate and completion rate (48.7%).

Notre Dame’s passing attack thrives on efficiency, ranking 24th in pass completion rate (45.6%) and 15th with a 66.2% pass completion rate, but it comes at the expense of big play ability, ranking 131st in passing explosiveness with only 11.5% hits. gaining 20+ yards. Their run defense has shown some vulnerability with star DT Riley Mills, as the Irish are 121st in completion rate (14.9%) and 50th in rushing completion rate (41.2%).

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Game Details and How to Watch the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Game – Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

· Date: Monday, 20.01.2025
· time: 19:30 EST
· Website: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
· City: Atlanta, GA
· TV/streaming: ESPN

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2025 College Football Playoff Semifinals Notre Dame Vs. Penn State

• Moneyline: Ohio State (-350), Notre Dame (+280)
• Expansion: Ohio State -8.5
• More/Less: 45.5 points

Last week’s prediction line favored Ohio State at -6.5/7 in this hypothetical matchup, however the market opened at OSU -9.5 and still shows a wide spread from -7.5 on Draft Kings to -9.5 on Bet Rivers. Bet MGM posted the best line for OSU at -350, while Bet Rivers offers +310 on Notre Dame. The game’s opening total of 46.5 points fell slightly to 45.5.

NBC Sports Betting Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“I was lucky enough to pick and play Ohio State vs. Notre Dame to be in the national championship game on the NBC Sports Bet The Edge program before the 1st round of the playoffs, so I’m playing with house money at this point. Although I originally picked Notre Dame as the national champion, the way Ohio State picked up its game after a disappointing loss to Michigan swayed me enough to back Ohio State while scoring 7.5 points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp insight into the action, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.

BetMGM College Football Highlights: National Championship Game

“Spread betting is coming in very balanced, which we expect to continue throughout the week. We expect the book to need a straight Buckeyes win, which is also favorable from a future perspective.” – Seamus Magee, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Quarterback Matchup for 2025 College Football National Championship Game – Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

• Lady: QB Riley Leonard spent his first three seasons at Duke, breaking out in 2022 but regressing in 2023 due to a nagging ankle injury that hampered his productivity, making just 57% of his throws on 3-for-3. Now fully healthy, Leonard completes 66% of his throws with a 19-to-8 ratio and an 82nd percentile offensive rating that ranks 20th among signal callers Power Four signal. Leonard’s dual-threat ability allows him to effectively avoid the rush with a 12% pressure rate (6th in P4), while posting three straight seasons with an 80%+ rate.

• Ohio State: Will Howard spent his first four collegiate seasons working in Kansas State’s offense before transferring to Columbus this offseason. The former Wildcat now leads a dominant OSU offense that is outscoring its opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game, the largest margin of victory in the nation. He’s completing a surgical 72.4% of his throws (2nd in the FBS) and is working with future NFL first rounders in Emeka Egbuka and generational freshman Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ relentlessly efficient offense ranks second in completion rate (55.1%) and third in punt return yards (8.6) despite completing just 10.2% of their passes 20+ yards downfield (121). Howard’s 84th percentile passing grade ranks 11th among power four signal callers and is the best mark of his five-year career, topping the previous high of 72.7.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: Trends and recent statistics

• Notre Dame has allowed a Completion Pct of just 50% this season, best in the FBS. Notre Dame DB Xavier Watts has intercepted 12 passes since the 2023 season, tops among all FBS defensive players.
• Notre Dame is 9-1 (.900) against the spread when it intercepts at least 1 pass this season, best among conference teams. (Avg: .585)
• Riley Leonard averaged just 10.6 yards per completion this season, 5th lowest among P4 quarterbacks.
• Notre Dame RBs averaged 20.4 yards per reception in the 4th quarter this season, best among FBS programs.
• Notre Dame’s offense has thrown for 2,915 yards in 15 games this season (194 YPG), 102nd among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 161.1 passing yards per game this season, best among FBS defenses.
• Notre Dame has allowed a rush of 10 or more yards on just 49 of 472 carries this season, 18th best in the FBS
• Notre Dame is 20-4 (.800) against the spread when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season, 2nd best among Power Conference teams. (Avg: .539)
• Jeremiah Love averaged 7.4 yards per carry this season, best among power conference participants. Jadarian Price has rushed for 10 or more yards on 21 of his 100 catches this season, 4th best among P4 rushers.
• Ohio State WRs have averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season, 23rd best among FBS WRs. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season, 21st best among FBS defenses.
• Opponents at Ohio State have averaged 10.3 TD passes in the red zone this season, tops among Power Conference teams. Ohio State has allowed just a 39% completion rate in the Red Zone this season, best in the Big Ten.
• TreVeyon Henderson has rushed for 10 or more yards on 29 of his 118 carries this season, best among Power Conference Running Backs.
• Will Howard has rushed for 7 TDs in the Red Zone this season, the most among Big Ten quarterbacks
• Quinshon Judkins has picked up first downs on 48% of his rushing attempts in short yardage situations this season, 4th worst among Big Ten Running Backs.
• Ohio State is 2-6 (.222) against the spread when making fewer than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2023 season, 6th-worst among Power Conference programs. (Avg: .425)
• Ohio State is 3-6 (.273) against the spread when it has allowed 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, 14th worst among Power Conference teams. (Avg: .399)
• The Buckeyes have lost 73% of their games by giving up 4 or more points since the 2023 season, 8th among Power Conference teams. (Average: 52%)

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